Friday Box Office Analysis
by Tim Briody
July 6, 2013
Minions = $$$$$
Despicable Me 2
After an incredible $59.6 million in its first two days of release, the animated sequel had a Friday of $30.2 million, giving it $89.8 million after three days of release. It's hard to understate how fantastic this performance is. Not only did Despicable Me 2 beat the opening of the 2010 original in just two days (one of which is a notable anti-holiday at the box office), it's going to be well over $100 million in four and will approach $150 million over five days. Despite a two weekend and $200 million head start, suddenly it's a much closer race between Despicable Me 2 and Monsters University for the top animated film of the summer, and the momentum is with the minions. Needless to say, this certainly bodes well for the minions spinoff planned for 2014. Monsters University had a 2.7 multiplier two weeks ago, and despite the Wednesday opening, Despicable Me 2 can easily match that, which would give it an $81.2 million weekend and $140.8 million over five days, with the possibility for a little more.
The Lone Ranger
Oh no, Silver. The Lone Ranger added another $10.5 million to its total on Friday, giving it $30 million over three days. Already one of the year's biggest disappointments (mostly when you consider its over $200 million budget) and punchlines, a weekend of about $28 million will give it $38.5 million in five days, where it will certainly collapse quickly from here. It's have going to lean heavily on overseas grosses if it hopes to break even.
Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain
The stand up concert film took in $3.7 million on Friday, bringing it to $11.1 million in three days. This is already more than the $7.7 million Hart's last performance film, Laugh at My Pain, earned in 2011. One of the biggest names in comedy right now, Hart may have singlehandedly revived a genre that last saw popularity in 2000 when The Original Kings of Comedy earned $38.1 million. WIth about $10 million for the weekend, that would give Let Me Explain $17.4 million in five days, an outstanding performance.
Notable Holdovers
Last weekend's breakout hit The Heat shows very strong legs with $8.7 million on Friday, down just 37% from last Friday. A strong second weekend for the Melissa McCarthy/Sandra Bullock comedy plus The Lone Ranger underwhelming is going to make it a very close race for second place on the weekend. Look for $26.1 million.
White House Down dips 50% to $4.5 million. Hey, could've been worse. Call it $13 million for the weekend.
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Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
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Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross |
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1
|
Despicable Me 2
|
81.2
|
|
2
|
The Lone Ranger
|
27.9
|
|
3
|
The Heat
|
26.1
|
|
4
|
Monsters University
|
22.6
|
|
5
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World War Z
|
20.8
|
|
6
|
Man of Steel
|
13.4
|
|
7
|
White House Down
|
13.0
|
|
8
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Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain
|
9.8
|
|
9
|
This is the End
|
6.7
|
|
10
|
Now You See Me
|
3.1
|
|
|
|
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