Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
June 14, 2014
Two sequels, two big opening weekends, one very close race at the box office.
22 Jump Street
The comedy sequel is the top entry on Friday with an outstanding $24.8 million. That’s a tremendous increase over the $13.2 million Friday 21 Jump Street earned in March 2012, showing the power of a sequel that doesn’t suck. It’s also another win for the R-rated comedy, after last month’s Neighbors (sorry, A Million Ways to Die in the West.) The Jonah Hill/Channing Tatum comedy is benefiting from outstanding reviews and has a tremendous lead over How to Train Your Dragon 2 at the moment, but things are going to be very tight by the time the weekend ends. Still, it’s going to surpass the original’s $36.3 million weekend by the middle of Saturday and even considering the sequel factor, 22 Jump Street is in line for a weekend of $60.3 million.
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The other sequel released this weekend, DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon 2, comes in second with $18.2 million. While this is also a fine increase over the original from March 2010 ($12.1 million Friday, $43.7 million weekend), 22 Jump Street steals the headlines for now. However, HTTYD2 will be the stronger performer over Saturday and Sunday, and the two will be neck and neck when the estimates roll in. I expect some clever accounting to give 22 Jump Street the edge for the weekend, but not by very much at all. Look for How to Train Your Dragon 2 to earn $60.1 million for the weekend.
The Fault In Our Stars
Last weekend’s breakout hit fell a rather predictable 65% from last Friday, as The Fault in Our Stars earned $6.3 million in its second Friday. The danger of opening to nearly $50 million yet not crossing $100 million isn’t as high as it was after last Sunday, but it’s pretty clear that the majority of the nerdfighters came out opening weekend because of the build up the young adult novel had. After one of the most pathetic multipliers in box office history last weekend, things will get a little better and it’ll come in with about $17.9 million for the weekend.
Edge of Tomorrow
Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow drops 58% from last Friday to $4.5 million. I have fewer good things to say about this and let’s just all agree to lower our expectations any time Cruise is in a movie now, okay? Give Edge of Tomorrow a second weekend of $13 million.
|
Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
|
Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross |
|
1
|
22 Jump Street
|
60.3
|
|
2
|
How to Train Your Dragon 2
|
60.1
|
|
3
|
The Fault in Our Stars
|
17.9
|
|
4
|
Maleficent
|
17.7
|
|
5
|
Edge of Tomorrow
|
13.0
|
|
6
|
X-Men: Days of Future Past
|
8.7
|
|
7
|
A Million Ways to Die in the West
|
2.9
|
|
8
|
Godzilla
|
2.8
|
|
9
|
Neighbors
|
2.5
|
|
10
|
Chef
|
1.8
|
|
|
|
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