Black Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
November 28, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2
Much like Part 1, Mockingjay Part 2 wins the Thanksgiving weekend with ease, despite a Friday-to-Friday decline of 53%. It’s a slightly better hold than Part 1, which dropped 56% to $24.2 million on Black Friday. It still has a good deal of catching up to do, as at this point Part 1 had $192.9 million to Part 2’s current total of $168 million. While guaranteed to be the lowest-grossing film of the four Hunger Games movies, it’s too early to say where it ends up, but there’s a distinct chance at this point it doesn’t have enough left in the tank to make it to $300 million, which would honestly be surprising after both The Hunger Games and Catching Fire crossed $400 million. For the rest of the holiday weekend, however, it’s headed to an easy win of $50.2 million.
The Good Dinosaur
Pixar’s second film of 2015 is the top new release of the holiday weekend, but it’s a far cry from the heights Inside Out reached earlier this year. Opening Wednesday with $9.8 million and then adding $6.5 million on Thanksgiving Day, The Good Dinosaur earned $15.6 million on Black Friday. That’s $31.9 million in three days, which is less than the $34.2 million Inside Out earned on opening day in June.
Thanksgiving is largely uncharted territory for Pixar, it’s the first non-Summer release for them since The Incredibles in 2004 and first Thanksgiving release since Toy Story 2 in 1999. That said, it should follow pretty much the same pattern as all animated releases on this weekend do, with Friday being the strongest day, a slight drop on Saturday and then a big Sunday decline. The Penguins of Madagascar had a 2.45 multiplier last year and two years ago Frozen started with just a 2.51 weekend on its journey to $400 million. This trajectory gives The Good Dinosaur a weekend of $39 million and $55.3 million over five days.
Creed
The Rocky spinoff comes out punching with $11.6 million on Friday following a Wednesday of $6 million and Thanksgiving of $6.4 million for $24 million after three days. This is actually pretty good. It’s a rough comparison, but in 2006 Rocky Balboa opened over Christmas and earned $26.6 million in its first six days of release. Creed has gotten great reviews, and it’s a good choice for a Thanksgiving release rather than Christmas one, as it stands a good chance from this of legging it out into the Christmas season. This weekend, though, look for a weekend of $27.4 million and a strong $40 million in five days.
Notable Holdovers
Spectre benefits from Black Friday with an increase of 22% from last Friday to $5.2 million. It was evident right away that this would not match the heights of Skyfall, but as of Friday Daniel Craig’s Bond swan song is now basically even with Casino Royale and Quantum of Solace, and with today’s box office it will officially be the second highest grossing Bond film of all time. A weekend of $12.5 million sends it headed towards the $200 million mark in two more weekends.
The Night Before also is a winner on Black Friday, off only 10% from last Friday to $3.2 million. A holiday themed bit of counter-programming, if you will, the Seth Rogen film will earn $7 million on the weekend.
Finally, awards bait in the form of both Spotlight and Brooklyn expand to nearly 900 theaters each, with Spotlight earning $1.6 million and Brooklyn $1.4 million. Both locks for Best Picture nominations, both should come in with about $4 million on the weekend as the Oscar picture finally takes shape.
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Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
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Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross |
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1
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The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2
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50.2
|
|
2
|
The Good Dinosaur
|
39.0
|
|
3
|
Creed
|
27.4
|
|
4
|
Spectre
|
12.5
|
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5
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The Peanuts Movie
|
10.0
|
|
6
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The Night Before
|
7.0
|
|
7
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The Secret In Their Eyes
|
4.2
|
|
8
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Spotlight
|
4.0
|
|
9
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Brooklyn
|
3.8
|
|
10
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The Martian
|
3.3
|
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