Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
April 2, 2016
This is what happens when your movie isn’t very good.
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
With a second Friday take of $15.3 million, that is an astonishing 81.1% Friday-to-Friday decline for Batman v Superman. That’s…not supposed to happen, even when we deal in the realm of huge numbers. The B CinemaScore BvS received was a very ominous omen for the its box office beyond opening weekend, and so here we are.
Batman v Superman’s “true” Friday number, taking out what was attributed to Thursday night showings, was $53.8 million. Comparing that to this Friday, that’s still a 71.5% decline, so it’s pretty awful all the way around. Still, Dawn of Justice has brought in $224.4 in just eight days in release, so it’s not so much that it’s a flop, it’s just that it’s going to have a much shorter run in theaters then planned, rather than dominating the month of April as I’m sure WB expected. Also, it’s not going to top Deadpool, which is currently at $352 million and still counting.
Batman v Superman’s Saturday was down slightly from Friday, when you take out the Thursday night figures, and Sunday was considerably worse, likely due to it being Easter. As we’ve mentioned a couple times already, the best comparison for where BvS goes may be Furious 7, which opened over Easter weekend last year. After a big Friday-to-Friday drop, there was a decent recovery on Saturday followed by a Sunday that was down somewhat from Friday, for a second weekend multiplier of 3.15. That same pattern means a second weekend of $48.2 million. I expect a combination of a slightly better performance and some creative estimation in order for WB to say that Batman v Superman landed a second weekend of about $51 million.
God's Not Dead 2
The faith-based film sequel is the weekend’s top opener and places fourth on Friday with just $2.8 million. This is actually an identical performance to the first God’s Not Dead movie from March 2014. The primary difference here is that was in just 780 theaters and this one’s in over 2,400. Attempting to expand from a targeted release didn’t pay off here, but it’s still looking at a weekend of $8.1 million.
Meet the Blacks
African-American targeted comedy Meet the Blacks earns $1.4 million on Friday in just over 1,000 theaters. It’ll be a weekend of just under $4 million and a swift departure from theaters from here.
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Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
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Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross |
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1
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Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
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50.9
|
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2
|
Zootopia
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21.6
|
|
3
|
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2
|
10.6
|
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4
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God's Not Dead 2
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8.1
|
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5
|
Miracles From Heaven
|
6.4
|
|
6
|
The Divergent Series: Allegiant
|
5.1
|
|
7
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10 Cloverfield Lane
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4.4
|
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8
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Meet the Blacks
|
3.8
|
|
9
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Eye in the Sky
|
3.8
|
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10
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Deadpool
|
3.5
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