Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
February 4, 2017
Super Bowl Weekend is still one of the few remaining times Hollywood generally takes a pass, tossing out a ridiculously late horror sequel and aiming something at teens.
Rings
Twelve years after The Ring 2, Rings manages to be the top movie on Friday with $5.6 million. For funnies, we’ll look at the opening weekend of The Ring 2 from March 2005. It started with $14.8 million and a $35 million weekend, before cratering and earning $75.8 million total domestically. Because of both the genre and the deflated Saturday (Super Bowl Sunday is one of the worst box office days of the year), Rings has a good chance of winning the weekend with a total that’s less than The Ring 2 earned on Friday. Ouch. It’s got a slight lead over Split, and I expect it to be close when the estimates come in, but Rings should have the edge with a weekend of $13.4 million.
The Space Between Us
Not a movie about The Dave Matthews Band, but instead a teen targeted sci-fi drama(?), The Space Between Us crashes with just $1.4 million on Friday. At 15% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, it’s the best reviewed wide release of the weekend (Rings wasn’t screened for critics and is tracking at 6% Fresh), which doesn’t really bode well for its longevity in theaters. We’re going to go with a weekend of $3.5 million and you’ll never hear of it again.
Split
Split earns $4.8 million on Friday, ending its streak of 14 consecutive days at the top of the box office. It’s down 39.2% from last Friday, which is still a solid hold after a drop of just 36% from its opening weekend. It’s creeping closer to be the first $100 million film of 2017, but the depressed Sunday means it’ll do it sometime during the week. Rings should hang on to the top spot for the weekend, but Split will make it close, as it takes in a third weekend of $13 million.
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Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
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Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross |
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1
|
Rings
|
13.4
|
|
2
|
Split
|
13.0
|
|
3
|
Hidden Figures
|
10.0
|
|
4
|
A Dog's Purpose
|
8.2
|
|
5
|
La La Land
|
7.0
|
|
6
|
Lion
|
3.8
|
|
7
|
Sing
|
3.7
|
|
8
|
The Space Between Us
|
3.5
|
|
9
|
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter
|
3.4
|
|
10
|
xXx: Return of Xander Cage
|
3.2
|
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