Weekend Forecast for February 1-3, 2019
By Reagen Sulewski
February 1, 2019
Studios dodge yet another weekend, though for least a semi-plausible reason this time. Still, 2019's slow start gets to continue for one more weekend, as the only thing that's gonna break it open? Some bloody new movies.
Avoiding the Super Bowl for new releases has some basis in fact as it remains one of the most watched events of the year. It is, however, only part of one day of the weekend, and the number of people who see movies on any weekend is just a fraction of Super Bowl numbers, probably easily absorbable by any decent movie, especially with counter-programming. Sure, don't open Black Panther 2 on this weekend, but movies with mass appeal can and have opened in this spot – the Channing Tatum/Amanda Seyfried romance Dear John holds the record for this weekend with a solid $30 million start.
We only get one semi-counter film this weekend, with Miss Bala. A remake of a 2011 Mexican film you never heard of until now, it stars Gina Rodriguez as a Mexican-American woman who gets caught up in a drug cartel's operation when she's visiting her cousin in Tijuana. After a club she's in is shot up by said cartel, her cousin is kidnapped and held as collateral so that Rodriguez will aid them in getting some drugs across the border (why exactly she's needed for this is an exercise left for the reader). Meanwhile, the FBI is on to her and using her as a mole in the cartel's operation, again, for unclear reasons. Hey, it leads to some kick-ass action scenes maybe?
This looks kind of similar to the recent Peppermint, which saw Jennifer Garner go all Linda Hamilton in order to get vengeance on a street gang. The transformation is a little less dramatic here for Jane the Virgin, but she does get the chance to tote an assault rifle in an evening dress, so that's something, right? Reviews put this as a fairly mediocre crime film with an illogical plot but at least give Rodriguez her props for holding her own in this setting. It's difficult to see who exactly the audience is for this film though, and I'd expect a modest opening of $6 million.
Glass will attempt to go for its third weekend at number one but there's a chance that it'll get nipped by the same film that stymied Aquaman's chances for a fourth weekend in first, as it's battling with The Upside. A hefty drop for M. Night Shymalan's low-fi superhero film knocked it down to $19 million last weekend, against The Upside's leggy $12 million showing. Glass appears headed towards a $120 million domestic total and will briefly hold the title of 2019's largest grosser. I'd bet on it to hold on for one more week at the top spot with around $10 million, while The Upside's buddy comedy falls to around $9 million
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Forecast: Weekend of February 1-3, 2019
|
Rank |
Film |
Number of
Sites |
Changes in Sites
from Last |
Estimated
Gross ($) |
|
1
|
Glass
|
3,665
|
-179
|
10.3
|
|
2
|
The Upside
|
3,568
|
+191
|
9.5
|
|
3
|
Miss Bala
|
2,203
|
New
|
6.6
|
|
4
|
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
|
2,234
|
-149
|
4.8
|
|
5
|
Green Book
|
2,646
|
+216
|
4.5
|
|
6
|
Aquaman
|
2,926
|
-208
|
4.3
|
|
7
|
The Kid Who Would Be King
|
3,528
|
+7
|
4.3
|
|
8
|
A Dog's Way Home
|
2,962
|
-119
|
3.5
|
|
9
|
Escape Room
|
1,942
|
-250
|
2.9
|
|
10
|
Mary Poppins Returns
|
1,704
|
-281
|
2.5
|
|
|
|
|
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