Friday Numbers Analysis
It Takes A Village To Top Box Office
By Tim Briody
July 31, 2004
Despite the worst reviews of his directing career, M. Night Shyamalan's The Village still tops the box office charts easily on Friday, as The Bourne Supremacy tumbles like a typical summer sequel.
The Village
The thriller/horror film earned an estimated $20.8 million Friday, eeriliy similar to the Friday figure for Signs this weekend two years ago. Shyamalan's films have proven to have decent opening weekend multipliers, so we can expect a 2.9 internal multiplier, again similar to what Signs managed. That will give The Village a stellar $60.3 million for the weekend.
The Manchurian Candidate
Denzel Washington's heavily marketed remake took in an estimated $6.1 million Friday. It's a bit off from April's Man on Fire, but Washington's drawing power should bring in a few more older viewers over the rest of the weekend. Give it a 3.1 internal multiplier for the weekend (based on Man on Fire's numbers), for $18.9 million in the war chest.
Harold and Kumar Go To White Castle
Uh-oh. Our two new favorite stoners guys with the munchies were only able to bring in $2 million on Friday. That's a disappointing opening any way you slice it, but here's hoping for some positive word-of-mouth. A 2.8 internal multiplier sounds about right, for a $5.6 million weekend, which still buys a lot of White Castles.
Thunderbirds
Thunderbirds aren't go with a mere $957,000 on Friday. It won't get any better for the rest of the weekend, so figure about $2.7 million and a quick trip to DVD.
Notable Holdovers
The Bourne Supremacy tumbles in its second weekend, off 60.1% for Friday. That's become par for the course for a lot of sequels that open huge, and as long as drops of this size don't happen in the third weekend and beyond, it's got a lot of box office life left. Figure a 55% decline or so for the weekend, placing it close to the $100 million mark.
Catwoman plunges a ridiculous 68.1% from last Friday. A 65% drop for the weekend is in store, and good riddance.
|
Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
|
Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross |
|
1
|
The Village
|
60.3
|
|
2
|
The Bourne Supremacy
|
24.1
|
|
3
|
The Manchurian Candidate
|
18.9
|
|
4
|
I, Robot
|
9.4
|
|
5
|
Spider-Man 2
|
8.2
|
|
6
|
Harold and Kumar Go To White Castle
|
5.6
|
|
7
|
Catwoman
|
6.0
|
|
8
|
A Cinderella Story
|
4.6
|
|
9
|
Anchorman
|
3.1
|
|
10
|
Thunderbirds
|
2.7
|
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