Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
March 5, 2005
A market devoid of family comedies brings Vin Diesel's The Pacifier to the top of the box office charts for Friday. Also, did you ever think the words "Vin Diesel" and "family comedy" would be used in the same sentence?
The Pacifier
With $8.8 million Friday, The Pacifier capitalizes on a dry spot in theaters to clean up and give Vin Diesel a badly needed hit. Given its family-friendly nature, I figure it will have a slightly above average internal multiplier. We'll give it a 3.1, which is good for an estimated $27.3 million weekend.
Be Cool
The Elmore Leonard adaptation pulled in $7.6 million Friday, a decent start but probably not enough to jump start John Travolta Comeback #732. Being upset by The Pacifier doesn't help either. Be Cool probably benefited from a bit an of opening night rush, so we'll give the Get Shorty sequel a 2.8 internal multiplier, which gives it a $21.2 million weekend.
The Jacket
A Friday take of $1 million is about as good of a first day you can hope for when your movie is a psychological thriller on 1,331 screens with virtually zero marketing. Look for a weekend take of $2.7 million for The Jacket.
Notable Holdovers
Diary of a Mad Black Woman drops 55.5% from last Friday, a number to be expected with such a niche film. It should be able to get its overall weekend decline under the 50% mark, but not by much.
After taking home four Oscars (all in the categories that matter; yes I'm looking at you, The Aviator) Million Dollar Baby jumps 20% from last Friday. The Best Picture winner should see an overall weekend uptick in the 30% range.
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Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
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Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross |
|
1
|
The Pacifier
|
27.0
|
|
2
|
Be Cool
|
21.2
|
|
3
|
Hitch
|
12.6
|
|
4
|
Diary of a Mad Black Woman
|
10.8
|
|
5
|
Million Dollar Baby
|
9.6
|
|
6
|
Constantine
|
6.1
|
|
7
|
Man of the House
|
4.1
|
|
8
|
Cursed
|
4.0
|
|
9
|
Because of Winn-Dixie
|
3.2
|
|
10
|
The Jacket
|
2.7
|
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