Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
October 29, 2005
Saw II
Improving handily on last year's $6.8 million opening, Saw II earns a solid $12.2 million Friday, already making back its budget three-fold. Horror films usually don't have very good Friday to Sunday multipliers and Saw was no exception, with a 2.68 on this weekend a year ago. We'll knock that down a notch to account for the sequel factor, and go with a 2.5 mutlipler, giving Saw II a still impressive $30.5 million.
The Legend of Zorro
The Antonio Banderas/Catherine Zeta-Jones film earned $5.5 million Friday, actually a back-step from The Mask of Zorro's opening of $7.4 million back in 1998. In this age of box office inflation, that's saying quite a bit. The original managed a 3.03 multiplier on its opening weekend, and given the family-friendly nature of The Legend of Zorro, sounds about right. That would give the sequel a somewhat disappointing $16.7 million.
Prime
The next two releases were pretty much DOA from a mile away and their screen count shows the lack of confidence the studios had in them. Uma Thurman and Meryl Streep's Prime managed $2.1 million Friday, and the rest of the weekend probably won't be too much kinder to it. Figure around $6 million for the weekend.
The Weather Man
After disappointing last month with Lord of War, Nicolas Cage now out and out bombs with The Weather Man, earning $1.4 million Friday. On 1,510 screens, it never really had a chance. Figure a little under $4 million for the weekend as Cage wonders if a National Treasure sequel is in the works.
Notable Holdovers
Doom gets the smack laid down on it and then some, falling a sick 78% from last Friday. The good news here is that it should be able to improve to an overall weekend decline of a mere 70%.
Dreamer holds well, down only 35% from a week ago. It might be the family movie of choice over the somewhat higher profile Zorro, so look for a weekend decline of slightly under 30%.
North Country's remaining hopes for Oscar notice go down the tubes with a 44.2% Friday-to-Friday decline. It might get that drop under 40%, but that won't help its chances come awards season.
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Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
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Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross |
|
1
|
Saw II
|
30.5
|
|
2
|
The Legend of Zorro
|
16.7
|
|
3
|
Dreamer: Inspired By A True Story
|
6.4
|
|
4
|
Prime
|
6.2
|
|
5
|
Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
|
4.6
|
|
6
|
Doom
|
4.5
|
|
7
|
The Weather Man
|
3.9
|
|
8
|
North Country
|
3.7
|
|
9
|
The Fog
|
3.1
|
|
10
|
Flightplan
|
2.8
|
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