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Yarr, there still be loot in that chest!

Kim Hollis: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest fell 54% to $62.2 million in its second weekend, and its grand total currently stands at $258.2 million. Is this better or worse than you expected?

Tim Briody: I was expecting a 65% decline minimum, was unsurprised at Friday's 66% drop off from opening day, but when the weekend estimates came in I was quite stunned at this development.

David Mumpower: If we take the first weekend of Dead Man's Chest out of the equation, only three films (the Ice Age and X-Men sequels plus The Da Vinci Code) had better opening weekends than the -second- weekend of Pirates. It even beat Cars. Any criticism directed at Dead Man's Chest right now would be nitpicking. It's a juggernaut.

Kim Hollis: Like Tim, I was really figuring on a massive, close to 70% drop. That just seems to be par for the course for any massive opener in this day and age. I'm very pleased to see that Pirates has overcome that trend.

Joel Corcoran: A whole helluva lot better than I expected. I'm stunned and amazed. A 54% decline during a very busy summer movie season seems at least on par with (if not better than) the corresponding drop-offs for Star Wars III (49%) and Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (30%).

Tim Briody: Since the same drop next weekend means it's over $300 million with ease, this type of success would seem to indicate that it's drawing people who usually don't see movies in the theater. It's impressive, I'll give it that.

David Mumpower: At this point, Dead Man's Chest appears to have a solid chance to surpass the $370.3 million required to make it one of the top ten domestic performers of all-time. The $380.2 million Episode III made is in range for seventh place. The $400 million barrier isn't even out of the realm of possibility. This movie is, if anything, bigger than we had expected, and this site was universally hailing it as the blockbuster of 2006.

Joel Corcoran: I think this movie now defines "box office phenomenon," at least in terms of surpassing expectations. We all thought it would be the blockbuster of the year, but I doubt very many people would've put it on par with Star Wars, Lord of the Rings, Shrek, and other franchises even a month or two ago.

Tim Briody: Pirates is Zinedine Zidane, everything else is that Italian guy.

Is it better or worse at World's End?

Kim Hollis: At this point, do you think Pirates 3 will have a better or worse opening weekend? What about final box office?

David Mumpower: I don't see any way the opening weekend is competitive with the record-shattering totals of Dead Man's Chest. I also suspect its final box office falls short. I am less certain of the latter than the former. It's important to note that summer 2007 is shaping up to be one of the biggest ever.

Kim Hollis: I don't think that it will match the opening, but I do think it has a shot at passing the final numbers. People are going to have to see what happens.

Joel Corcoran: If I had to guess, I'd say the opening weekend for Pirates 3 will be worse due to two factors: (1) 2007 is already packed to the gills with potential blockbuster films, including continuations of franchises; and (2) the ending of Pirates 2 may not be what some movie-goers like or appreciate (not that I'm giving away any spoilers or anything . I mean, the movie does...end oddly).

Tim Briody: The arrival of the third Pirates movie is next May (Memorial Day weekend). I think that's a mistake. May tentpole releases have a tendency to not even make it through June. We could be talking about Dead Man's Chest until Labor Day, for crying out loud.

Forget July 2006. Let's talk May 2007.

David Mumpower: The problem with any release date next summer is that you have a chance of battling a heavyweight. There are blockbusters including Spider-Man 3, Shrek 3 and Pirates 3. And that's just May.

Kim Hollis: I don't think competition is a big concern. We've seen over and over again that when people are jazzed for a movie, they'll definitely show up. As far as Memorial Day, Pirates 3 gets the benefit of the holiday opening and then has potential for legs. I think blockbusters are going to feed off of each other next year rather than hurting each other.

David Mumpower: Normally, I don't see competition as a significant factor. Next May is poised to be the landmark test of this theorem, though. We are talking about sequels to the three largest existing franchises in terms of box office facing off in a four week period. Space those out over three months and it's fine but put all three out in four weekends. That's asking a lot of consumers to find the free time to see each of them.

Tim Briody: It's going to be fascinating.

Joel Corcoran: My concerns exactly, David. And we're not talking just time, but money, too. The stereotypical "family of four" will spend at least $30 just on movie tickets to see one of these franchise blockbusters. Add in snacks and you're talking a lot more, just at the theater and not counting gas used to get there in the car. You're talking about $150 in a month just to see those three movies. And what happens when gas hits $4.50 a gallon next summer is anyone's guess ...

David Mumpower: I mean, try to pick the pecking order of those three films right now. All of them had $100 million opening weekends in their last outing. Shrek 2 beat Spider-Man 2. Dead Man's Chest has the best opening. Shrek 2 has the biggest single movie box office tally domestically. Spider-Man has the most international box office for its films. It's the Movie Franchise All-Star Game.

Joel Corcoran: It's like a cage match, but better.

Tim Briody: It's Movie Thunderdome, and it's awesome! Three films enter, one film leaves.

Kim Hollis: Do you think any of those films might balk and switch release dates?

Joel Corcoran: I doubt it - that would be a sign of weakness and lack of confidence.

David Mumpower: I think Shrek stays where it is. That's Shrek's weekend and its draw there is established. Since Spider-Man 2 lost to Shrek 2, I could understand them worrying about this release. In the end, though, I think it's Pirates 3 that moves...probably to July 4th again.

Tim Briody: I don't know who it would be, but somebody could blink in the next couple months. Pirates would probably be the most likely choice since the previous Shrek films were May releases and the first Spidey was May as well.

Tim Briody: I like that weekend much better than Memorial Day, especially for a sequel.

David Mumpower: We'll have plenty of time to run the numbers to make arguments both ways, but Memorial Day has historically been a rainmaker weekend whereas July 4th actually has the "negative box office" stigma. The other aspect is that July 4th is a Wednesday, so are we talking the week before or the week after? The week before has already been claimed by Transformers. Summer 2007 is Tentpole Central.

Tim Briody: I was figuring the week after, like Dead Man's Chest.

Joel Corcoran: It's Thunderdome meets Cirque de Soleil!