Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
November 18, 2006
Forget Ohio St. vs. Michigan. We've got James Bond vs. penguins.
Casino Royale
The latest James Bond opens in the top slot with $14.3 million on Friday. Taking a gander at the last few Pierce Brosnan Bond films, we've got Friday-to-Sunday multipliers of 2.93 for Tomorrow Never Dies, 2.89 for The World is Not Enough and 2.83 for Die Another Day (which had the highest opening day total of any Bond film with $16.6 million on opening day in 2002. We've got a pretty good idea of where this is going to end up, and we're going to lean towards the higher end due to this being Daniel Craig's first shot at Bond and the overwhelming positive reviews it's gotten so far. A 2.9 would give Casino Royale $41.4 million for the weekend, an excellent start.
Happy Feet
Penguins ruled 2005, and they're back with a vengeance as Happy Feet opens to $11.6 million Friday. The recent animated film Flushed Away managed a solid 4.0 multiplier just two weeks ago. While Happy Feet has a signifigantly higher opening night number, the weekend multiplier should be extremely kid friendly and may cause it to to top Casino Royale when the weekend estimates come in Sunday morning. A conservative 3.75 multiplier would give Happy Feet $43.5 million, just ahead of James Bond.
Let's Go to Prison
Clearly a bad idea from the second it was announced, Let's Go To Prison gets a sub-1,500 screen release and barely makes the top ten with $702,000 on Friday. It shouldn't even make $2 million for the weekend and I'd be surprised if it's still in the ten spot when the weekend estimates come in.
Notable Holdovers
After two weeks at the top, Borat runs into two heavyweights and all the additional controversy generated this week still causes it to drop 49% from last Friday's total. It should end the weekend with another $15.3 million and be just a few days away from the $100 million mark.
Stranger than Fiction drops a higher-than-expected 54% from last Friday, perhaps showing that people like their Will Ferrell wacky. The rest of the weekend should get it under 50% for the weekend, but it's still a bit of a puzzler. Call it about $7.2 million for the weekend.
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Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
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Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross |
|
1
|
Happy Feet
|
43.5
|
|
2
|
Casino Royale
|
41.4
|
|
3
|
Borat
|
15.3
|
|
5
|
The Santa Clause 3
|
7.6
|
|
4
|
Stranger than Fiction
|
7.2
|
|
6
|
Flushed Away
|
5.9
|
|
7
|
Babel
|
2.8
|
|
9
|
The Departed
|
2.5
|
|
8
|
Saw III
|
2.4
|
|
10
|
Let's Go to Prison
|
1.9
|
|
|
|
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