Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
March 17, 2007
300 takes a freefall in its second weekend, Sandra Bullock breaks a record and Chris Rock flops. All that and more inside!
300
Easily the least surprising news of the weekend is that after its record-setting opening, 300 collapses 64% from last Friday to a mere $10.1 million on Friday. The last Frank Miller graphic novel adaptation, Sin City, also met a similar fate on its second weekend after a solid opening. With 300, we're dealing with a much much bigger number, so there's room for a larger decline than the 51.4% that Sin City saw.
There is still some good news for 300. It's now the second film to cross $100 million in 2007 (and it did it in just eight days), it will surpass Ghost Rider as the top film of 2007 today and despite the massive plunge, it's still going to win the weekend. I see a second weekend total of $30.5 million.
Premonition
The Sandra Bullock-led thriller opens to $6.3 million, placing on the high end of opening days for her. As the only real option for adults who don't want a comedy in Wild Hogs or I Think I Love My Wife and don't want the violence of 300, this stands a chance at a decent weekend multiplier, potentially making this the largest opening of Bullock's career (believe it or not, that title is currently held by The Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood, with $16.1 million back in 2002). Premonition would actually need a 2.55 multiplier or worse to not beat that, so congratulations, Mrs. Jesse James, here's the best opening weekend of your career. Look for an opening weekend of $18.2 million.
Dead Silence
Proving that we've completely run out of ideas for original horror movies, a movie about a town overrun by evil ventriloquist dummies is able to open to $2.9 million. I have nothing more to say about this movie that is either relevant or true, so let me just say that it figures to finish the weekend with $7.5 million.
I Think I Love My Wife
Finally, Chris Rock's badly reviewed attempt at an adult comedy actually throws under Dead Silence, with a mere $1.8 million. The Fox Searchlight release will go away quietly with a disappointing $5 million.
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Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
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Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross |
|
1
|
300
|
30.5
|
|
2
|
Wild Hogs
|
19.2
|
|
3
|
Premonition
|
18.2
|
|
4
|
Dead Silence
|
7.5
|
|
5
|
Bridge to Terabithia
|
5.6
|
|
6
|
I Think I Love My Wife
|
5.0
|
|
7
|
Ghost Rider
|
4.2
|
|
8
|
Zodiac
|
3.1
|
|
9
|
Norbit
|
2.8
|
|
10
|
Music and Lyrics
|
2.1
|
|
|
|
|
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