With the box office monster that is The Passion of the Christ looming
large over the month of March, it’s hard to imagine too many other
movies making a big financial impact, especially considering that the
month’s slate of releases is almost entirely composed of unnecessary
remakes, unwanted sequels, or other generally formulaic flicks. On a
brighter note, with April looking more and more like the new May in
terms of housing big-budget films looking to avoid the summer logjam, it
will be quite interesting next month to see just how strong The
Passion’s legs are and how it can compete with April’s big-ticket films.
In any event, here are my predictions for the releases for March 2004,
ordered by opening weekend gross:
1. Starsky and Hutch
Director Todd Phillips looks to expand on the success of last year’s Old
School by here bringing back Vince Vaughn, along with the other Wilson
brother, Owen. The biggest draw, though, has to be Ben Stiller, who is
coming off the surprisingly successful Along Came Polly just six weeks
ago. Like that film, Starsky and Hutch has a great looking ad campaign
that seems to have a lot of buzz around it, particularly among the age
range this film is targeting. Another aspect the movie has going for it
is its '70s retro feel, which is of course always popular. The fact that
at least 80% of the people who go to see this in the theaters will have
never seen an episode of the original television show, while certainly
amusing to note, shouldn’t detract from this film’s box-office success.
Open: $28 million
Total: $85 million
2. Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed
Back in the June 2002, the first Scooby flick opened to a shocking $54
million dollars. It was almost universally panned, however, and the
film faded very quickly, especially given its kiddie audience and summer
release date. I don’t think anyone (except perhaps Freddy Prinze, Jr.’s
mom) is realistically expecting this sequel to do as well as the first
film. Still, the picture has the youngster demographic almost entirely
to itself this month, so I still like its chances to have a good opening
weekend, even if its lasting power is no better than the original. On
the other hand, Scooby-Doo 3 has already been greenlighted, so perhaps
Warner execs know something I don’t.
Open: $22 million
Total: $60 million total
3. Secret Window
Everyone knows the story at this point – Johnny Depp, presumably much to
his own dismay, has finally made it into “mainstream” Hollywood after
his outrageously popular (not to mention Oscar-nominated) turn as
Captain Jack Sparrow in last summer’s smash hit Pirates of the
Caribbean. The box office success of Secret Window, then, as Depp’s
first post-Pirates film, will certainly be watched by a number of
parties interested in seeing if the quirky actor’s newfound commercial
popularity will hold up. This movie is based on a Stephen King story,
which, although generally a promising sign, isn’t any guarantee of
quality (Dreamcatcher, anyone?). Still, with Depp on board, many have
high hopes for Secret Window.
Open: $17 million
Total: $53 million
4. Taking Lives
What is it about the initials A.J. and female-empowerment cop suspense
flicks? One of these days Ashley Judd and Angelina Jolie are going to
have to do one of those “Hardy Boys meet Nancy Drew”-type team-ups and
solve one of these spooky mysteries together. Giving this movie the
potential to be slightly more watchable is the presence of Ethan Hawke
and uber-badass Kiefer Sutherland. In terms of box-office potential,
however, Ms. Jolie hasn’t had a successful film in three years, and it
seems doubtful that this film will be able to open any better than
somewhere in the high teens, the usual range for this particular
sub-genre.
Open: $16 million
Total: $50 million
5. Agent Cody Banks 2: Destination London
Poor Frankie Muniz. While the first film was just the opening act in
Hilary Duff’s coming-out party last year, all Frankie got out of it
was…another Agent Cody Banks movie. Unsurprisingly, Duff isn’t back in
this one, although that shouldn’t really affect this movie’s chances too
much. This particular role seems to fit Muniz well, although with him
already 18, it seems that he’ll have to find himself a new genre
relatively soon – although, given the age of the stars of most high
school comedies, he could do those for at least another half a decade.
Look for ACB2 to perform very similarly to the original, given the scant
twelve months that have passed since the latter’s release.
Open: $15 million
Toal: $50 million
6. Never Die Alone
DMX is creating quite a solid little film career for himself starring in
“gangsta” action flicks like this one – which is good, since his rap
career certainly isn’t looking nearly as promising as it once was. Each
of his three previous films in this genre – Cradle 2 the Grave, Exit
Wounds, and Romeo Must Die – opened in Februrary/March with box-office
takes between $15 and $20 million. There’s no reason to suspect that
this film will perform much differently
Open: $15 million
Total: $35 million
7. Jersey Girl
Kevin Smith’s latest film, Jersey Girl or: Don’t Call Me ‘Gigli 2’,
stars Ben Affleck as a widower who must abandon his glitzy cosmopolitan
lifestyle in order to raise his daughter. Though J. Lo does appear in
the film, everyone has been quick to point out that her screen time is
brief. Smith’s movies have been steadily increasing in their box-office
take in proportion to his growth in mainstream popularity, and I expect
this one will improve slightly on the haul of the goofy Jay and Silent
Bob Strike Back.
Total: $13 million
Total: $37 million total
8. Hidalgo
“Congratulations Viggo Mortensen! You just starred in one of the most
successful trilogies in film history…what are you going to do now?” The
answer, apparently, is play the title role in the wannabe historical
epic Hidalgo, the story of a Pony Express rider participating in a
horserace across Arabian Desert. Mortensen will again try to display
the skills he learned in what Jon Stewart recently described as the
“Armand Assante Clinic for Smoldering Intensity” here, although unlike
Orlando Bloom, it doesn’t seem that Mortensen will be able to use LOTR
as a springboard to big-time fame. Indeed, Hidalgo looks to have “flop”
written all over it.
Open: $12 million
Total: $30 million total
9. The Ladykillers
The Coen Brothers are a little weird (like you really needed me to tell
you that). I’m referring, however, to their drawing power at the box
office. Despite the fact that everyone seems to love (or at least
respect) their films, and the fact that they have no problem drawing
A-level stars to their pictures, their movies never really make any
money. Last fall’s Intolerable Cruelty is a perfect example – despite
featuring George Clooney and Catherine Zeta-Jones, both undeniably huge
stars, in a romantic comedy that seemed made for them, the film barely
grossed $35 million. Therefore, despite the fact that The Ladykillers
features the universally loved Tom Hanks, it’s hard to imagine that this
film will do any better than any of the Coens’ previous efforts. That
isn’t to say it won’t be a good film – I personally can’t wait to see
how the Coens handle this remake.
Open: $11 million
Total: $33 million
10. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Finally, we come to this month’s wildcard entry, which also happens to
be by far the most original film to be released in March. Eternal
Sunshine of the Spotless Mind stars Jim Carrey, who is coming off the
biggest hit of his career. This picture, however, while ostensibly a
comedy, can hardly be placed in the same genre as Bruce Almighty, given
the quirky behind-the-camera talent associated with this film, that
being screenwriter Charlie Kaufman and director Michel Gondry. While
this film will certainly be highly anticipated by those who enjoyed
previous Kaufmann efforts like Adaptation or Being John Malkovich, it’s
hard to believe that this picture will enjoy much mainstream success.
On the other hand, no one expected to be Bruce Almighty to be nearly as
huge as it was, and Charlie Kaufman is gaining name recognition among
the masses, so while expect this one to make a relatively small impact
at the box office, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see it double my
prediction either.
