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Kim Hollis: I'm not sure what's going to happen here. Real die-hard movie lovers and comic book fans seem unhappy with it. In general, it seems well-enough liked. Of course, It's probably going to bleed audience on May 18th anyway. Shrek is the clear family choice at that point.

David Mumpower: This is a fascinating grudge match for the Spider-Man franchise against Shrek. No one was talking about the angry, green ogre when Shrek 2 went up against Spider-Man 2 yet the former film crushed the latter one by over $60 million domestically and $120 million worldwide. I guess this proves once and for all that Spidey is an Avenger.

Tim Briody: It's going to bleed massively starting next weekend, I really think Spider-Man 2's $373 million is safe, and I'm more confident in that than in the opening I predicted last week. Of course, if I'm wrong, I'll say so in this space.

Reagen Sulewski: It's got a huge head start on that number though. "Bleeding massively" could still give it one of the top 20 weekends of all time as an encore.

Kim Hollis: Since probably most people who saw Spider-Man 3 this weekend also saw trailers for Shrek 3 and Pirates 3, it's a fascinating symbiotic relationship.

Tim Briody: And I predicted Shrek the Third to be the overall summer winner, anyway.

David Mumpower: That's right. DreamWorks and Disney would never admit it, but a rising tide lifts all boats here. It's that much more free advertising for their tentpoles.

We're taking a mulligan on that one and starting over again.

David Mumpower: So, let's not learn anything from our mistakes. Do you see any film on the schedule from now until the end of 2008 that you believe can/will break Spider-Man 3's opening weekend record of $148.0 million?

Tim Briody: I said last week that Dead Man's Chest record was safe through 2007. My belief system now shattered, I would not be stunned if Shrek the Third or At World's End beat Spider-Man 3.

Joel Corcoran: I think Pirates 3 will break, but not shatter the record. I wasn't thinking that a week ago, but I am now.

Reagen Sulewski: I don't think any do, but it's certainly possible for Pirates to approach that mark.





Kim Hollis: "Let's not listen!" No, I really don't think Shrek or Pirates beat it for various reasons. Shrek is because it's a family film (though it is a family film that is likely to have a massive weekend multiplier) and Pirates opens on a holiday weekend, which hurts it some.

David Mumpower: I like Shrek 3's chances more than Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End's. The latter film's reported 170 minute run time will artificially deflate its opening weekend due to fewer exhibitions each day. Shrek 3 strikes me as a $100+ million opener, but I see it as having a better shot of beating Spider-Man 3 over the long haul than in the short term.

Joel Corcoran: I'll be contrarian here - even with the holiday weekend going against it, and the longer running time, At World's End is a juggernaut. If Spider-Man 3 can do $148 million, this film can do $150 million in spite of the forces opposing it.

Lemonade, that cool, refreshing drink...

David Mumpower: When life gives you lemons, you are supposed to make lemonade. For Warner Bros., this means that Lucky You's performance of $2.5 million with a per-venue average of $998 is an opportunity for a lot of lemonade...or, at the very least, a sour taste left in their mouths. What went wrong with Lucky You?

Kim Hollis: Everything? It was always pretty obvious that this was a bust. Curtis Hanson is great, but when Lucky You got delayed and then delayed again and then delayed again (and I think I'm missing an again or two), it was obvious the studio had no faith in it. Offering it up as a sacrificial lamb against Spidey was frankly kind of mean. Poker movies also feel a little bit like they're trying to hard to capture the fad.

David Mumpower: The obvious answer is "everything" as Kim said. It's also not far from the truth. This is one of the worst looking romantic comedies in recent memory. The fact that Curtis Hanson is responsible for it breaks my heart.

Tim Briody: Hmm, I guess I'll go with everything, too. Eric Bana has become box office poison, by the way.

Joel Corcoran: I agree with Tim.

David Mumpower: Between this and Music and Lyrics, Drew Barrymore could use a hit as well. 50 First Dates is her only true hit since 2000.

Kim Hollis: At least she got cover girl on People's Most Beautiful Issue!

David Mumpower: I understand they're photoshopping Kirsten Dunst in her stead now.

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