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And I don't get your point about Bay - yes, he needed this to be a hit after The Island flopped, but Bad Boys II made $140 million. Pearl Harbor almost made $200, and Armageddon made just over $200. How do these not fit the mantle of summer blockbuster? All of them made more than The Rock.

Kim Hollis: Yeah, I'm with Reagen here. The strange calendar configuration makes this one a little bit less impressive than its three-quel brethren. But since it's a first in a series, this performance is plenty impressive in its own right. Of course, we'll be talking about Harry Potter in two days, so it really did need to make the most of its first week.

Max Braden: I think we do have to take into consideration that Transformers was a first entry in a summer of sequels, despite the notion that the Autobots are an established property. Even "long weekend" numbers, until recent history, rarely saw grosses in excess of $80-90 million, and I think they only reason we're hearing the $152 million number for the long weekend (absurd, since six days is only a day short of a week) is so it can look good against numbers like $128 million and $151 million for Pirates 3 and Spider-man 3 respectively.

But look at the history of opening weekends: Transformers is ranked about tenth in history for thrfee-day weekends for movies that aren't sequels. We're also likely to see a top ten performance for fastest to $200 million history, including sequels. I think it's fair to say that Transformers exceeded expectations for a movie of this type, and holds its own against the other summer blockbusters.

If it doesn't make $300 million, it's probably Starscream's fault

Kim Hollis: Where do you see Transformers going from here? Do you believe it has made a majority of its box office already or do you envision a performance well beyond $300 million?

Reagen Sulewski: If you look at something like War of the Worlds, which had an almost identical opening weekend, and tack on the extra that it made prior to the weekend, you end up at almost $300 million. I think that just a little bit beyond that is the ceiling - which is of course nothing to sneeze at. The big question is just how much of its audience it's used up with the opening week stunt. The fact that it wasn't able to beat that July 4th total on any of the weekend days tells me it's at least some. My gut instinct is that it's made just slightly over half of its final domestic total already.

Joel Corcoran: Reagen's analysis is as solid as ever. The only factor working in Transformers' favor right now (that I can think of) is repeat viewings. Every person I've talked to who saw the movie and liked it has said they want to go back and see it in the theater again - or maybe even three or four times. Granted, my friends are a small sample. I know about 12 to 15 people who liked the movie (the other half dozen or so who didn't are just crazy), but I found this near-universal desire to see Transformers multiple times rather surprising. If my sample of friends is statistically accurate, then Transformers will break $300 million. But for now, my gut instinct is the same as Reagen's - I think it'll hit around $280 - $285 million in the end.

Tim Briody: Yeah, about half of its wad was probably shot this week. A hair under $300 million is my pick.

David Mumpower: I would not read a lot into that, Reagen. If you look at the July 4th openers the last time we had this calendar configuration, neither Cats and Dogs nor Scary Movie 2 matched their July 4th total on any of the weekend days. The best either one managed was 90% of its July 4th total on the following Saturday. So, Transformers' $25.9 million on Saturday is 89% of the $29.1 million it made on Wednesday, basically matching the 2001 performances. Given that Cats and Dogs had a final multiplier of 2.55 from its first five days of box office and Scary Movie 2 had a 2.09, I don't see any reason to expect Transformers to earn under $300 million. It might even wind up surpassing Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End in total domestic box office and could even sneak into the top 20 all time if it holds up well over the next seven days. The only real concern is that consumers have had an unprecedented ability to see the movie this weekend, meaning that a lot of supply has already been met.

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