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But really, *where on the spectrum* do you expect it to fall?

Kim Hollis: The previous four Harry Potter films have wound up with box office between $249 and $317 million. Where on the spectrum to you expect Order of the Phoenix to fall?

Michael Bentley: Somewhere around $290-295 million; right about where Goblet of Fire fell. So, it's already probably near half its total.

Max Braden: That low range number was the one for the only other summer frame release for the series, The Prisoner of Azkaban. I think the dark tone might have hurt that film, but I think the legs or Order of the Phoenix won't last as long as they might have in the holiday season. $275-280 million.

Reagen Sulewski: With a little luck, I think it could squeeze out just over $300 million. Provided it doesn't have its legs cut out from under it, those summer weekdays are going to make a difference of $10-20 million to the final totals.

Jim Van Nest: Well, if there's any justice, it should finish as the highest grosser of the series since it's the best movie. Word-of-mouth has been really positive and I could see it cracking the $300 million mark. I would think when the whole series is complete, it'll rank as the #2 or #3 grosser in the series. Deathly Hallows will be the one to squash the rest.

Dan Krovich: It seems like they've settled into a consistent range where they know what the Harry Potter movies are going to make. There's probably not a whole lot more to be gained, and even at this point there's not much risk of doing a whole lot worse so the goal seems to be to keep the costs down and cash the checks.

Kim Hollis: I'm actually going to go toward the low end of the range - $265 million. I expect the second weekend drop to be drastic and while it should recover some after that, it won't ever be quite the same as it was in week one. This would put it near the bottom of the spectrum, but much of that is because of the summer release.

David Mumpower: I suspect a total in the range of $280 million will be accrued. As has been pointed out, summer legs didn't help the prior Potter release in this season. What does aid it significantly, however, is the fact that there is nothing on the radar that will replace Order of the Phoenix in IMAX theaters. As long as it has that business locked up, it will hum along at $4 million extra a week indefinitely. That seems insignificant but it adds up over time. Superman Returns was a prime example of such behavior from an otherwise struggling performer.

Jim Van Nest: And having seen Phoenix on the IMAX, in a word...WOW! The 3-D scene at the end of the flick was worth the price of admission by itself. I know I convinced a handful of people to see it a second time on an IMAX screen. Hell, I'd see it again on IMAX!

Tell me why I don't like Wednesdays!

Kim Hollis: Does the early week success of Transformers and Order of the Phoenix eliminate some of the stigma against the strategy of mid-week openings?

Tim Briody: I still don't like them because what a movie could earn From Wednesday-to-Sunday should theoretically still be possible from Friday-to-Sunday (I doubt there has ever been a movie that's sold 100% of its seats for an entire weekend of showings), but when dealing with a known quantity with a huge fanbase like Harry Potter, it's not that big a deal. For something with questionable quality and box office prospects, a five day opening is just asking for it.

Michael Bentley: I wouldn't exactly call it a stigma. I mean, plenty of tentpole films have done it successfully before. But, yeah, we'll probably see even more of them in the next couple years now.

Max Braden: For summer blockbusters maybe, but I doubt it will be an across the board trend. I for one would like to support the stigma so I don't have to deal with apples/oranges 3-day weekend comparisons.

Reagen Sulewski: There's still no reason to do it with anything but the very highest calibre of blockbusters. You're looking for "Really Big Number" not "Be Awed By Our Accounting Practices!"

Michael Bentley: Just imagine how big the numbers would be if the boys of Enron could work their magic!

Kim Hollis: As Reagen and others have mentioned, I think this is only a worthy strategy when it comes to movies that are expected to be blockbusters in the first place. Otherwise, I think studios are as likely to be hurting themselves.

David Mumpower: It all comes down to calendar configuration and how a movie's opening box office needs to be marketed. For Spider-Man 2, a Wednesday opening was a mistake. For Transformers, it was a brilliant tactic. With regards to Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, it falls somewhere in the middle. A $100 million opening weekend would have gotten it great headlines and a $140 million five day total gets it the same celebratory news cycle.

To a larger point, I do feel that these two performances undo some of the damage caused by Superman Returns. Studios won't be quite as scared off by the mid-week release.

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