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Optimus Prime wins again

Kim Hollis: Transformers held up very well from last weekend, falling 47% to $36 million. It has a running total of right at $223 million. What odds do you give of it earning $300 million? And what odds do you give of it surpassing Spider-Man 3 ($335 million) for #1 for the year?

Michael Bentley: I was pretty impressed with its hold this weekend. I think it's almost a sure-thing for $300 million. $335 million will be tougher, though.

Tim Briody: If it does make it, it's going to be the quietest $300 million earner ever. So fickle is the box office now. It's got no chance at Spider-Man, by the way.

Max Braden: It's chugging along fairly well because it lacks competition. I can see another $70 million, but it won't catch Spider-Man 3.

Reagen Sulewski: That's about $5 million more than I would have given it credit for for this weekend, so I'll add about $15 million more to my prediction, which would put it just over $300 million. I think Harry Potter hits $300 sooner though, if they both get there.

Dan Krovich: A part of that relatively small drop has to do with the fact that the first Friday was its fifth day in release (when we include the Monday at 8 p.m. showings). This weekend-to-weekend drop is essentially a second weekend-to-third weekend drop, and that is right in line with what the three-quels did.

Kim Hollis: I think it hits $300 million, but only just. Spidey 3 continues to be safe.

David Mumpower: I agree with everyone else here. I do believe it's 70% likely to reach $300 million. With regards to catching Spider-Man 3, I don't even give it a 10% chance at the moment.

Poor Harry's dollars are too thick for his wallet

Kim Hollis: Same questions with Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix. What odds do you give that it will reach $300 million? And what are its chances of beating Spider-Man 3 for #1 film of the year?

Michael Bentley: 50-50, and maybe 10% chance. I could be wrong, but I expect a huge drop next weekend, as a bunch of kids will be reading the newest book instead.

Tim Briody: Goblet of Fire broke the trend of diminishing returns for the Potter movies, but I think that streak ends at one. Incidentally, it's absolutely fascinating that we have now had two straight weeks with movies basically getting halfway to $300 million in their first five days, and neither is a lock for $300 million nor has any chance at beating Spider-Man 3. I guess there was something to being first out of the gate.

Max Braden: It wouldn't surprise me if The Order of the Phoenix doesn't even match the $290 million of its predecessor, The Goblet of Fire. So I'd say the odds aren't good at it getting to $300 million or beating Spider-Man 3. I do however think the Phoenix run will provide a boost for fantasy films Stardust in August, and also for The Golden Compass in December, just when the Potter DVD will be heavily advertised.

Kim Hollis: I mentioned that I don't really see Potter getting to $300 million already, which means that it's obviously not beating Spidey.

David Mumpower: I am going to hedge my bets here a little bit. I am never a fan of determining a film's final box office after such a small sample size for performance. I don't expect Order of the Phoenix to earn $300 million, but I certainly would not rule it out. I see the odds as about 40%. Despite this, I am not ready to dismiss its chances of surpassing Spider-Man 3. There are too many unknowns at the moment. People are expecting its box office to be negatively impacted by the presence of the seventh novel. I am not so certain. I see it as possible that the book keeps people wanting to see the fifth movie more often than normal in its third and fourth weekend. Combining this with the IMAX premise from a prior topic, Order of the Phoenix does have a chance to hang around long enough to surpass Spider-Man 3. I don't give it good odds, but I would say it's got a 20% chance, which is twice as much as I gave Transformers.

Jim Van Nest: I'm not so sure it won't crack the $300 million. Everyone keeps pointing to the release of the book as a potential draw away from the second weekend. Okay, fair enough. We'll probably see a large drop off for next weekend. Of course, that's been the trend all summer, really. I wonder about the third weekend. With all the fanatics having finished Deathly Hallows by then, will they head back to the theater for one last dose of Harry? It'll be a while before Half-Blood Prince hits and there are no more books to look forward to.

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