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It will make one trillion dollars!

Kim Hollis: Recently, we talked about the final box office prospects for two other $70 million openers, Transformers and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix. What do you think are the box office prospects for The Simpsons Movie long-term? Will it play out as a family film? Is it front-loaded? Will it get repeat viewers?

Reagen Sulewski: As good as the film is, I think it's going to fall like Homer jumping Springfield Gorge. In many ways, this is the ultimate fanboy film. I would take a look at performances like X-Files: Fight the Future and the South Park Movie. A 50% drop would be a triumph, and from here, it might get to about $175-180 million.

David Mumpower: I would love for this to go on to make $200 million or more at the box office. Reagen has already pointed out the best comparison, 1998's Fox movie adaptation of their then-hugely popular series, The X-Files. The movie opened to $30.1 million but wound up with final domestic receipts of $83.9 million. In the current market climate, that would seem like good legs but at the time, it was horrific front-loading. I'm not completely certain The Simpsons Movie makes $150 million domestically. Of course, it doesn't matter much at this point. With a budget of only $75 million and world-wide box office of $96 million for 71 markets, it's already golden financially.

Shane Jenkins: X-Files was not terribly newbie-friendly. I can personally attest to that. Fortunately, you don't have to be a member of the Cult of Simpson to appreciate this movie (though it does reward that loyalty). I think word-of-mouth will be terrific on this one, so maybe even some of the unwashed will be tempted to check it out when their friends rave about it.





Joel Corcoran: Thanks, Shane, for saying "Cult of Simpson" before I was forced to do so. I didn't want to stand alone, facing the wrath of BOP readers for saying that.

The Cult of Simpson viewers will go back to the theater at least once or twice more, though I bet the DVD sales for this movie will be immense and overwhelming (compared to what the average movie generates from a DVD release). The question of whether it's front-loaded or not is a tricky one though. I'm expecting a 50-55% drop-off next weekend, but I think the movie should have some pretty long legs. It will be a nice alternative to the usual late-August/early-September box office doldrums, and a lot of casual Simpsons fans (like me) will have to reconsider the decision to wait for the DVD, rather than seeing the movie in theaters. Even with a sharp drop over the next week, The Simpsons Movie should hit $175 million in total domestic box office take, though $190 million is not out of the realm of possibility.

Kim Hollis: I've been feeling like it would be extremely front-loaded, but Joel's point is well-taken. I'm sure there are plenty of people who were taking the "wait and see" attitude about this, and with the glowing response The Simpsons Movie has received, some of them might be the ones to give it a chance in weekend two. And having seen it twice already, I can attest to the fact that it's actually better on a second viewing, so maybe repeat business will be there as well.

David Mumpower: There is a certain segment of Simpsons fans (i.e. people like me) who will go watch this repeatedly in theaters. I'm not sure if it will be any more of a factor here than it has been for the Star Wars prequels, but it definitely could prop up the legs a bit.

Michael Bentley: I don't want to get in a pissing contest of which franchise has the most loyal fans, but fans of Homer and the gang are very devoted to the show. There will be a lot of Comic Book Guy-wannabes who return for multiple visits in the hopes of figuring out every last little detail. That said, most people who really wanted to see the movie will have seen it in the first few days. So I expect a big-time drop this week, and a grand domestic total of about $155 million.

Walid Habboub: Why isn't anyone looking at this movie like a kid's movie?

I haven't seen it yet, and haven't seen what the kid/adult ratio is in the theatres, but i'd be shocked if this isn't big with the kids. In fact, I think the main reason it opened bigger than what most people estimated is because of its cross-generational appeal. I think the legs will be very strong on this movie, and with very few strong kids movies coming out soon, I'd be shocked if it doesn't beat every number predicted so far.

I went out on a limb and said it would open to $80, I'll go out on a limb and say it ends up in the $250 to $300 range.

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