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Studio execs will soon be begging at the side of the road.

Kim Hollis: With The Golden Compass and Beowulf, we have seen two films with budgets of over $100 million that have been huge financial disappointments. What is the difference between the holiday "blockbusters" and the summer ones that is keeping consumers from going to the movies? We've been down so much year-over-year recently. Do you see this trend continuing?

Max Braden: I get the feeling that studios are putting more award-bait platform releases into the holiday season in recent years, and then figuring as long as they throw in a movie that looks like a blockbuster, people will go see it. So quality hasn't been good since the hobbit fantasy films dominated December. There seems to be only one blockbuster winner each December, and it's drifting away from the epic fantasy or animation and more toward action/adventure. This year we have two likely strong performers with I Am Legend and National Treasure 2.

Reagen Sulewski: I wonder if this isn't something to do with DVDs supplanting box office as the main source of revenue for studios. They get as much product as they can out in the summer, get the DVD out in time for people to buy at Christmas, and take what they can get with theatrical release at Christmas.

Tim Briody: I think a big point is that neither of these looked all that appealing (at least to me) and they were relative unknown quantities, as opposed to the summer, which had a great deal of familiarity. I'm pretty sure that trend will continue as Hollywood pushes the majority of their sequels for the summer months.

Michael Bentley: I think it is simply a case of the product not being very good right now. Sure, there are some very fine movies out there (hint: go see No Country for Old Men!), but these are mostly smaller, artsier movies that rarely score well in the megaplex.

Vampires or Nic Cage? The decision *seems* easy.

Kim Hollis: Which film do you expect to be the biggest of the holiday season, National Treasure: Book of Secrets or I Am Legend?

Max Braden: The opening numbers may be close, with I Am Legend getting the advantage of opening first. But unless reviews are bad on National Treasure 2, it will be the champion with the longest legs. It could even manage to hit the $200 million mark.

Reagen Sulewski: I Am Legend may have a tougher time with its scare factor - that's going to limit a lot of its younger audience. National Treasure has a wider-appealing premise as well as built in familiarity being a sequel. What Smith can do these days as a lead is the wild card, however.

Shane Jenkins: The trailers for I Am Legend are terrific, and I can't wait to see it. I think it will do well enough, but I wonder if it will be one of those projects that falls between the cracks by trying to appeal to too many demographics at once. Like Reagen said, it will be inappropriate for the kiddies, but the horror aspect could also keep away some of the older crowd and women that make up a large part of Will Smith's fanbase. At the same time, there might not be enough explicit horror to keep the Friday night scream crowd's attention. So, I think I Am Legend kind of comes with a glass ceiling in terms of how much money it could possibly make. The sky's the limit for National Treasure 2 though, much to my chagrin. People don't seem to hate the first one as much as they should, and the family-friendly nature of the franchise means it will be the primary choice for all ages. Golden Compass's weak opening is good news for NT2, as that film will be a non-factor in another two weeks, and families will be looking for something to see together that doesn't involve poo-eating chipmunks. I give the edge to Nic and company.

Michael Bentley: It's already been well-stated, but unless it turns out to be a giant turkey, National Treasure 2 will likely be the winner. Though, as Reagen said: Will Smith "as a lead" is definitely a wild card.

Tony Kollath: I'm still intrigued at what the reaction to I am Legend will be once the public realizes what it's "about." The trailers do a fantastic job of making the project look interesting, without providing more than a whiff as to what the substance of the movie is. Without giving too much away, based on the source material, I was surprised to see this slated as a holiday film.

David Mumpower: I think the answer depends upon how we frame the question. If "bigger" means opening weekend, I strongly suspect that I Am Legend is going to take that title with a $60-$70 million performance, which is just dominant for a December release. Over the course of their theatrical runs, however, I expect Book of Secrets to surpass it as the biggest film not just of the month but of the entire post-summer period.

Pete Kilmer: I honestly can't wait for both these films. I am *so* ready for big popcorn films that I'll see both opening weekend and I never go out opening weekend for films. I will say that I think National Treasure 2 is gone be the winner over the long haul.

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