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Choose your answer wisely or Hancock might break down your walls.

Kim Hollis: Hancock is Will Smith's fifth July 4th release to debut at #1. Do you expect it to be more of a Men in Black/Independence Day or more of a Men in Black II/Wild Wild West from here on out?

Scott Lumley: This is going to be a Men in Black II result. Will's popularity is carrying this movie, but it doesn't bear repeat viewings and I think word is getting out that this film is a solid 'Meh.'

Daron Aldridge: I'm going with MIB II with about a $200 million total. It will take a better product to reach the heights of mid- to late-'90s Will Smith July totals. Working at a theater during the years of ID4 and the first MIB, it just seemed more like an experience with many repeat viewings than today's movie-going. I'd also argue that Will Smith benefited more from Independence Day (the movie) than vice versa.

Pete Kilmer: Hancock will be much more of a Wild Wild West kind of thing for him. The word-of-mouth is really mixed on it, as people either love it or hate it. There's not much in between.

Tim Briody: In Fresh Prince speak, I believe the proper phrase to use here is "yo Holmes, smell ya later!" To which I mean it's going to collapse pretty darn hard fast. But it'll be over $200 million before it's done.

Joel Corcoran: I think we should just forget Hancock and start looking for trailers for Seven Pounds and The Trial of the Chicago 7.

David Mumpower: Someone would have to start filming The Trial of the Chicago 7 for that to happen. It got delayed indefinitely due to the strike and Spielberg's hectic shooting schedule.





Max Braden: I keep looking at Tim's $200 million number and jumping to devil vs. angel responses. On one hand, this is Will Smith in July, so it feels like it would be a big bomb not to reach $200 million. And Indiana Jones didn't have great reviews and still made it over the $300 million mark. But Indiana opened with a three-day weekend of $100 million. Hancock is probably closer to last year's July 4th opener, Transformers, which had a $70 million three-day (with that long runup to the weekend) and finished the holiday weekend at $150 million. Sadly (because I liked the movie) I'm going to have to agree with Tim.

Reagen Sulewski:I really think there's a middle ground here. There's a tendency to turn things into Iron Man or Speed Racer, and while that's often the dichotomy, it doesn't have to be. Hancock feels like a film that's going to just sort of chug along, make a sizable but not spectacular amount of money and play on TBS (heavily edited!) for years to come.

D. James Ruccio: I completely agree with Reagen. I think it plays right down the middle. I think the mixed word-of-mouth will kill its chance to be a huge Will Smith blockbuster. Also working against it is the uneven ad campaign which was all over the map. I don't think people had or still have a true sense of what this picture is about.

Jason Lee: Count me in the "MIB II/WWW" camp on this one. The reviews have been bad, the word-of-mouth has been bad and the "twist" was "The Village"-esque. I would imagine a pretty hefty Sunday-to-Monday drop, which will of course portend worse things to come.

David Mumpower: Relative to expectations six months ago, I think Hancock is already a winner for Sony. This production has been a struggle since day one due to the troubling subject matter. Everyone was freaked out by the (now deleted) statutory rape scene, and just a couple of weeks ago, people were speculating this could bomb relative to Will Smith standards.

Calvin Trager: What would the final tally need to be for Hancock to be considered a box office disappointment - under $200 million?

Les Winan: Wouldn't under $200 million be a bomb by Will Smith standards?

David Mumpower: Out of his recent films, only I Am Legend exceeded $200 million. Everything he's done since Ali (in 2001) has earned at least $138 million domestically, though. His range is usually around $165 million, a number Hancock will easily clear.

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