New at BOP: Review: Matrix Resurrections Movie Review: Moonfall Movie Reviews: Scream The #1 Movie in America November Forecast The Many Saints of Newark October Forecast New Trivia Question All site updates Share & Save   Tweet Print this column

Jason Lee: I agree with Scott on this one. I think Watchmen has the unique positioning of having a movie-going audience who's both acclimated to this type of uber-stylized picture (with 300, Wanted, etc.) and interested in it. On top of that, you have a The Matrix-like situation with a movie that looks primed to introduce a breathtaking new visual landscape.

I would argue that this is the type of situation that helped Finding Nemo garner $340 million at the box-office. Now I don't believe that Watchmen will do quite THAT well, but I do believe that it'll break the $200 million barrier.

Jim Van Nest: I'll start by saying I'm not a comic guy. I'd never heard of Watchmen until the movie buzz started going. I saw Dark Knight, but did not get the Watchmen teaser and to date have still not seen it. I don't necessarily think I have to have seen it to say that I think the previous predictions are way high on it. First up is the March release date. Huh?? This is supposed to be a huge movie and it gets dumped into March? I don't like that at all. Second, this is not a very popular title. And when I say popular, I mean well known to the average Joe. As the intro says, it was a 12-issue run done over 20 years ago. Not exactly Batman.

To get the huge box office, in my opinion, it has to appeal to more than comic geeks. And I don't think Watchmen does. For me, I think a good comparison for this might be Blade. Blade was another character I'd never heard of, yet this unknown guy opened to $17 million in 1998. Now, I'm not saying Watchmen will be that low. In fact, I think a better comparison might actually be the Blade sequel. It opened in March of '02 to the tune of $32 million and finished with a total box office of $81 million. I expect Watchmen to perform better than that, but follow a similar pattern. It'll get the fanboy opening, and will probably crack the top seven or so March openings. But 300's March record is very safe as I'd look for a $40-45 million opening and a final take in the $120 million range.

Pete Kilmer: Disclaimer: Working on the front lines of comic fandom (i.e. a Comic Store), my perception of what the public is going to do is a bit skewed. That being said, when the trailer hit along with the Dark Knight, my four stores here in Indianapolis sold out of the Watchmen trade the very next morning and continued to sell like crazy for the next month. DC Comics reprinted an astonishing 1,000,000 copies of the book to meet demand.

I've seen one reason that people believe Watchmen may fail is that comic fans are too old. Would you have said that about the Lord of the Rings fans? This is almost the same thing in the way that people wanted to see Lord of the Rings as a movie for decades. Comic fans have wanted a Watchmen movie for years, and the fact that it looks super sexy (in a Matrix, 300 kind of way) is going to draw in a lot of "civilians" (not comic fans) to it. I reject the notion that comic fans are to old to go see it. They will be out in crazy numbers opening weekend and if the movie is as good as Kevin Smith says it is (remember he loved the third Star Wars prequel movie, so take it with the grain of salt), then the movie is going to get a LOT of repeat business. Putting the film out in March is just smart placement for it.

Continued:       1       2       3       4       5       6