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Craig Hemenway: I fall closer to Max's camp than Scott and Jason's. Watchmen was a fantastic story and a landmark in the comics medium. However, as a movie it lacks two things: 1) a character/franchise that's well-known outside of comics fans; and 2) a recognizable star. I think Watchmen opens more like Daredevil than The Dark Knight. Most recent comic book movies have featured an instantly recognizable character - Batman, Spider-Man, Superman, the X-Men. Those that haven't have fared much more poorly:

1. Sin City - $29 million opening, $74 million box office (2.55 multiplier)
2. Daredevil - $45 million opening, $103 million box office (2.29 multiplier)
3. Ghost Rider - $52 million opening, $112 million box office (2.15 multiplier)
4. Fantastic Four - $56 million opening, $155 million box office (2.77 multiplier)
5. FF2 - $58 million opening, $158 million box office (2.72 multiplier)
6. Incredible Hulk - $55 million opening, $135 million box office (2.45 multiplier)
7. Hellboy 2 - $35 million opening, $75 million box office (2.14 multiplier)

Of the above, the Fantastic Four is probably the best-known to a non-comics reader so it's no great surprise that it had the best opening, overall box office and multiplier. And to Pete's point, this is no Lord of the Rings. LotR had far, far more name recognition outside its core audience than does Watchmen. I just don't see the draw that gets this to open above the mid-40s and finish with more than about $120 million.

And as much as I love Kevin Smith (in a totally hetero, non throw-away-the-dixie-cup style) he's hardly unbiased when it comes to the subject of comics and he has never had a movie open above about $20 million. I wouldn't use him as a predictor of box office.

Sean Collier: I really think many of you are underestimating the name value of Watchmen. I know literally dozens of people who either don't read comics/graphic novels and love Watchmen, or started reading comics because of Watchmen. In fact, there are very few (young) people I know who aren't familiar with the book. I do agree with the point that a comic book film is hard to sell without a key hero - see Sin City or The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen - but the marketing should make up that gap, I think.

I'm not sure how this film couldn't outperform 300. Think of the arguments some of you have made against Watchmen's success - it's not a mainstream property, there's no hero, it's a hard sell. All of that is true several times over of 300, which was a practically unknown comic series until the film was released. The compelling visuals and sheer energy of the film led to a $70 million opening - in March, mind you - and a finish at $210 million. I truly believe that if 300 can open to $70 million, Watchmen can open to $80 million, at the very least - remember, we are talking about the most significant graphic novel of all time.

As to the reaction - I feel the film is sure to thrill those unfamiliar with the book, and be something of a disappointment to loyalists. Watchmen fans are fanatical - unless we get detail all the way down to a significant chunk of Tales of the Black Freighter on screen, a good sized sequence of Hollis Mason backstory, and about 15 minutes of Dr. Manhattan alone on Mars, I don't think diehard fans will be satisfied. Still, even as a fan of the book, I think I'll like the film - the trailer has me very intrigued.

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