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Beware the Shiny Saturation Cycle of Tweendom, Hannah Montana! Beware!

Kim Hollis: Does this turn of events alter your opinion any for your expected performance of Hannah Montana: The Movie, which is due to be released in about six weeks?

Brandon Scott: Yeah, probably so. Her last concert flick was only a year ago. The craze will not be there the second time around. People won't queue up for tickets and celebs won't have to ask around town to try to secure them for their kids like happened for the concert. Sure, it'll temper expectations, but that's a gooooood thing.

Marty Doskins: Why do you say that's a good thing? Are you just hoping Hannah Montana goes away? If that's the case, I'm sure millions of little kids and the Disney Channel would disagree with you. Just because you may be out of the age range for liking Ms. Montana, it doesn't mean that she should go away. I'm sure when you were growing up, you had interests that annoyed your parents or other adults around you.

By the way, I think this Jonas Brothers result does lower my expectations for Hannah Montana. But I still think it'll do pretty decent.





Joel Corcoran: Hannah Montana fans are numerous and very committed. They utterly adore Hannah Montana at a visceral level, regardless of how many movies she puts out (and given the absolute dearth of good role models for younger girls, I don't think this is a bad thing at all). In contrast, the Jonas Brothers are just another boy band by comparison. Also, you have to look at the fact that six weeks from now will be the beginning or ending weekend of spring break for a lot of families. They'll be looking for cheaper alternatives to destination travel for a spring break trip, and making Hannah Montana one event of a "staycation" may be just the ticket for them. So, I think the way the Jonas Brothers movie tanked is a warning sign, but it's not death blow by any stretch.

Reagen Sulewski: Dear Miley - read the Mandy Moore guidebook. Cover to cover. Follow it religiously.

Les Winan: The good news there is that Ryan Adams will almost certainly be available again soon.

David Mumpower: Some others have hedged their bets here. I'm going to be a bit more blunt. I just cut my expectations for a Hannah Montana movie in half. I had been thinking this was a lock to smoke High School Musical 3's $90.5 million. Now, I'm wondering if it will even edge out the concert movie's $65.3 million. While I did just say that the Jonas Brothers have no business being directly compared to Hannah Montana, I find myself fearing over-saturation of that product. I think Disney may have missed their window again here, at least in terms of theatrical box office. They've literally made billions off of the High School Musical and Hannah Montana brands, neither of which existed in 2005.

Kim Hollis: As Reagen has already mentioned, the shelf life for these fads is so short for a couple of reasons. The first is that tweens naturally have a short attention span and quickly turn their minds to other cool things. The other reality is that as these kids get older, it's just not "cool" ("cool" is probably such an uncool word to use here) to like the same things anymore. It gets even worse if a younger sibling starts to like the "uncool" thing. I think it's very possible that with both High School Musical and Miley Cyrus, the kids that liked them last year and two years ago have grown up a little and moved on to different, more mature things.

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