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The concept of the “frontrunner” is always a complicated and confusing one when it comes to the Oscar race, and for a number of reasons. For one thing, the Best Picture frontrunner is often a film that doesn't get released until December - late December, even - which means that for several months we are guaranteeing a Best Picture Oscar to a film that we haven't seen. The other complicating factor is this: no studio wants their film to be the frontrunner anymore. Awards coverage has become so consuming that if any film is considered the early frontrunner, every media outlet immediately begins picking it apart, and inevitably a backlash begins to develop.

Last year is a great example of the pitfalls of being a frontrunner in the Oscar race. During the 2009-10 race, there were two early favorites for Best Picture, and neither of them won the award. Up in the Air was considered a film that truly captured the zeitgeist of the recession, was from an up-and-coming young director, and starred one of the most beloved Hollywood stars of this generation. So what happened? Two explanations have been offered: the first is that it peaked too early. There wasn't much to say about Up in the Air, and after the buzz died down people sort of forgot about it. The second explanation is that it was just too much of a downer, but it seems more likely that its frontrunner status bled it dry before the season even really began.

The other frontrunner from last year was Avatar - the biggest blockbuster of all time, directed by a behemoth in his field, the man who had made the previous biggest film of all time. It was also a revolutionary piece of technology that told a classic story in a (sort of) new way. But then the backlash started: would actors vote for a film that paved the way for a future in which there are no more actors? Would the terrible screenplay get voters to reconsider voting for this film? Was James Cameron just too much of a pompous jackass to deserve being awarded again? So of the two frontrunners, one went home empty handed on Oscar night, and the other picked up a trio of technical awards. The film that ended up winning was a small war film that also seemed to capture the national zeitgeist, although it was about our relationship with Iraq. It built momentum throughout December and January, going from a film most people thought would just be happy to be nominated to being the clear favorite, and ended up winning six Oscars, including a historical Best Director win for Katherine Bigelow.

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