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For a number of reasons, there really isn't a frontrunner this year. There are a few films that people can point to and say, “This movie has a very good chance at winning Best Picture,” but nothing that can rise above the crowd and be declared the film to beat. Right now there are five films that, if they wanted it, could claim frontrunner status, but just as strong an argument can be made against each of these films winning as for it. Let's go through the pros and cons of each of them:

The King's Speech
The Pro: Clear Oscar bait, this period piece biopic tells the story of King George, and his struggle to overcome his speech impediment, which makes him a fairly unimpressive leader in the face of the rise of the Nazi party. It certainly looks like typical Oscar fare, and it stars Oscar favorites Colin Firth (nominee for A Single Man), Helena Bonham Carter (nominee for The Wings of the Dove) and Geoffrey Rush (winner for Shine). It is inspiring and heartwarming and all of those other adjectives we like to throw at this kind of true story. Most people haven't seen it yet, so we don't know how well it will go over with audiences, but so far critics are raving about it.

The Con: Remember when I just pointed out how typical Oscar fare has been striking out for almost the last decade? The King's Speech might be seen as too old-fashioned for the Academy, which has seemed depressed for a while and has thus been awarding much darker films. Even the uplifting Slumdog Millionaire had a serious dark side. Will the King's Speech be thought of as shallow fluff in these dark and modern times? Certainly it will do well in the artistic awards, and Colin Firth is the favorite for Best Actor, but there is too much going against this film to consider it a favorite to win, although at this point a nomination is almost assured.

The Social Network
Pros: It's being called a film that defines a generation, which is probably a good sign. It is certainly a dark film, as this modern take on the rise to power narrative won't really make anyone feel good about anything. It has gotten raves from critics and has made almost $90 million at the box office. David Fincher is a well respected director, and Aaron Sorkin is one of the most beloved and high-profile screenwriters in the world. The young cast features mostly unknowns, but Jesse Eisenberg has been a rising star since The Squid and the Whale and this is clearly a career defining role.

Cons: It might define a generation, but which generation? Certainly not the Academy's, which is comprised of mostly older white men. That's the audience you need to connect with to win an Oscar, and the big question is whether or not The Social Network will be able to move them the way it has moved younger viewers. The other big issue with this film is Jesse Eisenberg's Mark Zuckerberg. Is he too unlikable a main character for a Best Picture winner? He is certainly a wildly unsympathetic protagonist, the kind of which was not found in other dark Best Picture winners; The Departed, No Country for Old Men and Crash all had characters who you really cared about, and I think most people just wanted to smack Zuckerberg across the face. While a screenwriting Oscar is practically in the bag for The Social Network, a Best Picture win seems iffy.

Inception

Pro: Inception is certainly the fan's choice, and is riding a wave of support from critics as well as the undying love of fans. Typically well reviewed blockbusters are guaranteed nominations, as it's the Academy's way of proving that they're in touch with mainstream America. Christopher Nolan is a highly respected filmmaker, and the cast boasts numerous Oscar nominees and winners, including Leonardo Dicaprio, Marion Cotillard, Michael Caine, Ellen Page, and Ken Watanabe.

Con: The problem is that the big blockbusters almost never win the award. Remember, only one sci-fi/fantasy film has ever won Best Picture, and that was an extremely extenuating circumstance. Inception is a beloved and successful film, but it is certainly no Return of the King. When even Avatar can't take home the big prize, you know that these types of films have to really be something special to do anything more than secure a nomination. Technical awards seem like a good bet for this summer hit, but you can't claim that Inception is a favorite for a Best Picture Oscar.

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