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The Help

One of the biggest hits of the summer, this movie has Oscar Bait written all over it. It deals with race, but not in a way that alienates or criticizes the overwhelmingly white Academy voters. It's also an actors' movie, with a large cast that will appeal to the largest branch of white people within the Academy. The one negative it has is that it was made by an unknown director, and since the direction wasn't particularly interesting, it is likely that this will be nominated for Best Picture without getting a Best Director nomination. The last time a film won under those circumstances was Driving Miss Daisy, which kind of makes sense, considering both movies had similar approaches to confronting racism, by which I mean “Yay white people!”

Midnight in Paris

There is still a lot of love for Woody Allen in the Academy, which is why they try to nominate him every time he makes a good movie. Such occurrences aren't too frequent, however, as Allen has only gotten two nominations in the last decade, and hasn't had a Best Picture nominee since Hannah and her Sisters more than two decades ago. But with Midnight in Paris proving to be his biggest hit ever, and one of the few light comedies in the race, it has a real shot at making it onto the Best Picture shortlist.

Hugo

If we're talking about filmmakers who constantly make their presence felt at the Oscars, any list that includes Steven Spielberg, Woody Allen and Uwe Boll is certain to include Martin Scorsese. But unlike Spielberg and Allen this year, Scorsese is making a film that is completely different than his typical fare*. Hugo is aimed at a much younger demographic than most Scorsese movies, being a children's film about the magic of imagination and the wackiness of Sacha Baron Cohen. Kids films typically do not do well at the Oscars, but considering there is a vacancy left by the supreme mediocrity of Cars 2, Hugo could take the Best Picture slot reserved for Pixar films the last couple of years. If there were ten guaranteed spots, Hugo would have a great shot, but considering there could be as few as five nominees, its chances are iffier.

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

One of the more interesting premises of any Oscar contender this year is based on an acclaimed novel by Jonathan Safran Foer and directed by Stephen Daldry, who seems to only make Best Picture contenders. But this is another cast driven film, and if it makes it onto the Best Picture shortlist, it will be because of a cast that includes Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock, and a slew of big-name actors. Right now it has a lot of potential, but because it hasn't been seen by anyone, we have no idea how receptive the Academy will be to it. It has a very thin line to walk, considering it's about September 11, 2001, although it seems significantly less dark than the last 9/11-related contender, United 93.

We Bought a Zoo

Cameron Crowe's latest film might be the biggest question mark in the race right now. Crowe does have some cred with the Academy, having won an Oscar for Almost Famous, but his last two movies, Elizabethtown and Vanilla Sky, were both critically panned and ignored by everybody (except for this girl that I met on New Year's Eve a couple of years ago, but I'm pretty sure she's not in the Academy). So even with a cast that includes Scarlett Johansson and Matt Damon, unless this movie gets great reviews it is going to sink quickly, especially if it's considered too slight or quirky for the Academy's tastes. Then again, it could be this year's Juno or Little Miss Sunshine and win Crowe his second Oscar.

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