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The Bad:

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Considering it is a movie that everybody is talking about, this film is considered that major contender that has the best chance of dropping out of the race. Yes, Fincher is on a hot streak, but before Social Network and Benjamin Button, his previous six films combined for three Oscar nominations, none in any major category. Yes, it's based on a best-seller, but one that's considered more of a pulp crime novel than a great work of literature. It's getting a lot of press, and it's going to make a lot of money, but it is the self-described “Feel Bad Movie of the Holidays,” and unless it gets stellar reviews it could just be considered too dark and harsh for the Academy, and end up empty-handed. Assuming the great reviews do come, it does have a real shot at being the winner and finally getting Fincher an Oscar.

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Two things to consider: 1. There are a ton of British people in the Academy. 2. There are a ton of British people in this movie. This is another dark, depressing movie (the third word in the IMDb plot description is “bleak”) about Cold War spies, featuring an all-star, crooked-toothed cast. It is baffling that Gary Oldman has never been nominated for an Oscar, but he has his best shot here, especially considering the reviews so far have been glowing. If the British contingent of the Oscars rally behind it, Tinker Tailor should have a clear path to a nomination (and it has Benedict Cumberbatch in it, you guys! Benedict Cumberbatch! Have you seen BBC's Sherlock? Benedict freaking Cumberbatch!!!).

The Ides of March

George Clooney has developed a reputation over the last few years as one of the most serious and interesting actors working in Hollywood, and whether or not it's deserved, it has netted him three acting nominations, as well as a writing and a directing nod, in the last five years. This is only the second drama that Clooney is directing, and while it has not received the level of acclaim as Good Night, and Good Luck., it still has a lot of supporters. Could a film about the evil underbelly of the American political system find its way onto the list of Best Picture nominees? Surprisingly, political films are not a great bet with the Oscars, perhaps because the Academy tries to eschew controversy at every turn. But considering how beloved Clooney is, you can't count out The Ides of March.

J. Edgar and The Iron Lady

Two biopics, both alike in dignity, both about important and controversial figures in their respective countries' histories, both starring revered actors longing for Oscar gold. It seems like a while since Eastwood's streak of Best Picture nominees, and considering the mediocre reviews that J. Edgar has gotten, it seems like its Best Pic chances are next to nil, but considering how much love there is for Eastwood, you never know. The Iron Lady does not have the same pedigree behind the camera, but it does have Streep starring as former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. If her performance is sufficiently lauded it could be enough to land her vehicle on the Best Picture shortlist.?

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