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Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

There is really no precedent for a movie like this when it comes to the Oscars. It is a film aimed for kids, but it has more in common with Lord of the Rings than with most children's movies. It is the culmination of a series adored by audiences and critics, and the Academy might want to nominate it as a way of rewarding the series as a whole. But how many Academy members are going to put this at number one on their nominee ballot? Especially considering that its thunder as the British film is going to be stolen by Tinker, Tailor. It's a long-shot for certain, but it can't be counted out of the race right now.

The Weird:

The Artist

In 1927, Wings was the first Best Picture winner, and the only silent film ever to take home the gold. A year later, The Patriot would be the last silent film to even be nominated in that category. This year, we could have another one. Since it premiered at Cannes, Michel Hazanivius' love letter to the golden age of Hollywood has been one of the most talked-about and raved-about films of the year. Undoubtedly there will be some bias against it (although a few Academy members will be able to reminisce about when they made silent movies) and I can't see it doing very well at the box-office, but everyone who has seen it has loved it, and it could be a huge hit with Oscar voters. Juan Dujardin is one of the favorites for Best Actor right now, and might pull a Roberto Benigni, riding a wave of popularity to Oscar and pulling his film with him.

The Descendants

Alexander Payne makes weird movies, but somehow manages to make weird movies that perfectly match up with the Academy's tastes. While he has only one Best Picture nominee to his name (Sideways, for which he won a screenwriting Oscar), both About Schmidt and Election were definitely in the running for nominations. Perhaps the fact that his movies are about middle-aged white guys strikes a chord with Academy members, and he's back this year with another critically-acclaimed dramedy. With George Clooney on board, it's no surprise that this is getting a lot of attention (but where was that attention for Clooney's best film, The American, last year? Nowhere, that's where.) and is, along with War Horse and The Artist, one of this year's favorites for a nomination. Whether it can win after that is another matter entirely.

Moneyball

The last time a movie about baseball was nominated for Best Picture was Field of Dreams, back when Kevin Costner was a respected actor and filmmaker. Fortunately those days are long over, and these days our baseball movies are more likely to star Brad Pitt, and to not actually be about baseball. You could argue that a movie about math was nominated for Best Picture as recently as last year, with The Social Network, and the last one before that was A Beautiful Mind. The point I'm making is that Moneyball is an odd duck in the Oscar race, but considering how glowing the reviews have been, in particular focusing on Pitt's performance, it could very easily score a nomination. The fact that it did very well at the box office won't hurt its chances, either.

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