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Michelle Williams

I could probably claim Michelle Williams to be either overdue or an up-and-comer; yes she has been nominated for two Oscars, and probably should have been nominated for more than that (especially for her brilliant supporting turn in Synecdoche, New York) but she is also still in the first part of her career, with a lot more great roles to come and, most likely, several more nominations. Here she has her meatiest role, playing Marilyn Monroe in the memoir adaptation My Week with Marilyn. Williams is in the same boat as her veteran competitors, in that reviews mostly focus on how extraordinary she is. The Academy loves to reward young actresses, and if anyone is going to take down Streep and Close, Williams probably has the best shot.

Keira Knightley

It's strange to think about how long Knightley has been in the game, considering she became a recognizable face in 2003's Bend it Like Beckham, and a superstar the next year in Pirates of the Caribbean. Considering Knightley only has one nomination to her name, she is not overdue in the sense that she deserves more recognition than she has gotten, but rather that it's time for her to prove she has what it takes to be thought of as a great actress. She's had complex roles in Pride & Prejudice (for which she was nominated), Atonement and Never Let Me Go, but she has never had that role that allows her to be brilliant or to fail trying. She might have her chance this year in David Cronenberg's A Dangerous Method. Only two actors have ever been nominated for Cronenberg films (William Hurt in A History of Violence and Viggo Mortenson in Eastern Promises) but playing a mentally deranged woman in a weird love triangle sounds like pure Oscar bait. If Knightley capitalizes on the opportunity, a nomination would not be surprising.

Ellen Barkin

Depending on whether you're over or under the age of 30, you are either asking yourself “Whatever happened to Ellen Barkin?” or “Who the heck is Ellen Barkin?” Barkin was a pretty big star in the late '80s and early '90s (or so I can gather from her IMDb page), but other than a Golden Globe nomination in 1992 and an Emmy for something called Before Women Had Wings, Barkin hasn't got much in the way of accolades. But as a family matriarch in Another Happy Day, Barkin is receiving some serious buzz. With the film's mixed reviews and zero public visibility, Barkin will have a tough path to a nomination, but if she wins the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Comedy (her only serious competition will be Charlize Theron and Kristen Wiig) she could slide in.

The Up & Coming:

Viola Davis

There was some concern that Davis would be pushed into the supporting category for The Help, in which she was clearly a co-lead with Emma Stone. If the concern was ensuring Davis an Oscar win, rather than not being even more blatantly offensive than the movie itself, then having Davis in the supporting category would be a good decision. There is a lot of love for The Help, much of it focused on Davis, but she has a lot of stiff competition in this category, which will make it very difficult for her to win. But she is certain to be nominated, and if she is the only woman in this category representing a Best Picture nominee, her chances will increase significantly.

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