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Rooney Mara

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will certainly challenge the sensibilities of Oscar voters more than any other film this year except Shame and A Dangerous Method. Mara clearly has the best role in the film as Lisbeth Salander, but if the Academy doesn't embrace the film then her chances of being nominated drop to approximately zero. Regardless, this is a breakout role for Mara (before now known only for her brief but memorable performance in The Social Network) and if she becomes a star then there will be many more nominations in her future.

Elizabeth Olsen

If there is a spot available for this year's version of Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone, then that spot is clearly reserved for Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene. Olsen is young and pretty, but not movie-star beautiful, and while her potential for commercial products is likely not as high as Lawrence's (who already has X-Men: First Class under her belt, in addition to next year's The Hunger Games) she has the makings of an indie star along the lines of Ellen Page. The Academy loves nominating young actresses - although almost never young men - so Olsen has a shot if even one of the major contenders falls out of the race.

Felicity Jones

The other young actress trying to get a nomination with her breakthrough role is the co-lead of the romantic drama Like Crazy. While the film was a hit at Sundance, it hasn't gotten much attention during the course of its theatrical release, which will make it difficult for Jones to get any Oscar traction. If the critics speak up for her - specifically, if she can win the Best Actress award with either the NY or LA critics - and then build on that with a SAG nomination, she could grab a nomination, but right now she is a very long shot.

Mia Wasikowska

I'll be honest here and say that I can't see Wasikowska getting nominated for her performance as the title character in Jane Eyre. Of course, I'm not clairvoyant, which is unfortunate for me, but fortunate for Wasikowska. For some reason actresses from the first half of the year frequently get nominated in this category, with Diane Lane, Keisha Castle-Hughes, Kate Winslet (for Eternal Sunshine), and Julie Christie all maintaining their buzz throughout the year. The only film from this year that could be considered an Awards contender is Jane Eyre, but it will have to push its way hard into the consciousness of voters to pull that off. If it does, Wasikowska has potential for a nomination.

The George Clooney:

Charlize Theron

In 2004 Theron made the transition from sexy movie-star to revered actress when she won an Oscar for Monster. Since then she has only been nominated once, for North Country, but she still has enough credibility to always be a threat to get nominated for a good enough performance. There is one important drawback to Theron's chances this year, though: dislikable protagonists rarely show up at the Oscars. Jesse Eisenberg's nomination last year for The Social Network was an exception, but if the Academy dislikes the character (not including villains who we love to hate, like Hannibal Lector and Hans Landa) they are unlikely to nominate the actor. Theron's popularity could overcome that bias, especially if Young Adult gets good enough reviews, but it will be difficult if her character is as unsympathetic as she seems.

Tilda Swinton

Everyone I've talked to who has seen We Need to Talk about Kevin raves about Swinton, which is enough to make her a contender. Swinton only has one Oscar, won for her only nomination, but it was recently enough that she can't be thought of as overdue. The question for Swinton, the same as it is for Jones, Bichir, and Shannon, is whether or not her small indie vehicle can get enough traction to push her to a nomination. Last year Javier Bardem got a nomination thanks to a huge push from Julia Roberts, who championed his film, but Swinton, who did not have such vocal support for her similarly lauded performance in I Am Love, was overlooked. If the Globes or the SAG is willing to nominate her, to get her more attention from Academy members, she will be a contender, but without a lot of support this will just be another forgotten performance.

I'll be back later to talk about the Supporting races, but to tide you over I'll let you know which actors I think have the best chance of being nominated in the lead races:

Best Actor:
1. Juan Dujardin- The Artist
2. George Clooney- The Descendants
3. Brad Pitt- Moneyball
4. Leonardo Dicaprio- J. Edgar
5. Gary Oldman- Tailor, Tinker, Soldier, Spy
6. Woody Harrelson- Rampart
7. Michael Fassbender- Shame

Best Actress:
1. Meryl Streep- The Iron Lady
2. Viola Davis- The Help
3. Glenn Close- Albert Nobbs
4. Michelle Williams- My Week with Marilyn
5. Rooney Mara- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
6. Charlize Theron- Young Adult
7. Elizabeth Olsen- Martha Marcy May Marlene

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