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Who Got Hurt:

We Bought a Zoo, Super 8, and Young Adult (Ignored by NBR and NYFCC)

These Oscar hopefuls know that if they don't start getting mentioned soon, it will be impossible for Oscar voters to take them seriously. We Bought a Zoo could be seen as too light, lacking the gravitas that helped Cameron Crowe's other films Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous achieve awards success. Super 8 was hoping to take on the role of the crowd-pleaser that skews younger, but with Harry Potter and Hugo getting so much attention, JJ Abrams' early summer release seems to have been completely forgotten. Young Adult has the highest hopes of the three, but now is reliant entirely on the Golden Globes to give it a boost going into the heart of the race. Right now Best Picture is a virtual impossibility for these three films.

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Unseen by NBR and NYFCC)

Yes, I understand that this is all part of the strategy for this film, but it is still a dangerous strategy. Other films have successfully skipped the early part of the race and come storming in late, with recent examples like True Grit, Letters from Iwo Jima, and Munich proving that it can be an effective strategy. But Stephen Daldry does not command the same level of respect as The Coens, Eastwood, or Spielberg, and Extremely Loud is being met with as much suspicion as excitement right now. It will not be considered an Oscar frontrunner until it is seen, so it needs to start being screened for critics before it goes the way of The Lovely Bones, another literary adaptation from a respected filmmaker that sank without a trace.





Glenn Close (Ignored by NBR, NYFCC, and Spirit Awards)

This has not been a good week for Close. Her film, Albert Nobbs, has not been getting very good reviews, which already puts her at a disadvantage. She needs as much critical support as possible to keep her in a prime position for an Oscar nomination, and being ignored by both the NBR and the NYFCC is a really bad sign. She came into the race behind Streep, and is now falling further behind. On top of that, Close has missed out on a chance to win an award without having to compete with Streep. Although co-star Janet McTeer was nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the Spirit Awards, Close was not nominated in the Best Actress category. Close is still a serious threat in this category, but if these snubs are the beginning of a trend, Close might be left out altogether.

Martha Marcy May Marlene (Ignored by NYFCC, NBR, Nominated Best Actress, Supporting Actor, and First Feature Spirit Awards)

MarMarMayMar is in the opposite position of 50/50 and Harry Potter; as a Sundance favorite with quite a bit of critical support, it already has the proper credentials to be an Oscar contender. But it is a very small and very dark film, which will make it difficult for Oscar voters to rally behind. Without a lot of precursor love it won't have a shot at Best Picture, and now Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Original Screenplay are questionable. The fact that it didn't even make the NBR top 10 independent films list is a notable slight, as a mention from either group in any way would have been very helpful. In addition, not being a Spirits Best Picture nominee means that even among the small independent films it is not the most popular pick.

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