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The Golden Satellites

The Golden Satellites have always been a joke, but they used to be a funny joke. I'm not sure why they combined their previously split major categories (Comedy and Drama for Best Picture, Actor, and Actress) but seeing their eccentric picks was always more amusing that way. Now they're just weird, in addition to being completely irrelevant to the Oscar race. I guarantee you that nobody is going to point to Juan Dejardin's Best Actor slight by the Satellites as proof that The Artist is weak. On the plus side, the Satellites are the first precursor with a Best Song category, which gives us some indication of what songs the Academy might consider when they throw together that category haphazardly.

Who Got Jessica Chastained:

Jessica Chastain (Best Supporting Actress NYFCC, Nominated Best Supporting Actress Spirit Awards)

This category is for contenders who were simultaneously helped and hurt by the first round of precursors, and naturally Chastain is first up. The issue with Chastain's Oscar campaign isn't exposure, because it's difficult to find a movie that came out this year that she wasn't in. Yes, the Supporting Actress award from the NYFCC helps, but they didn't give it to a specific film; instead the award is for her performances in The Help, Take Shelter, and The Tree of Life. This will not help her deal with the vote splitting conundrum. The Spirit Awards specifically nominated her for her performance in Take Shelter, but considering that none of her other performances were eligible (the budgets of The Help and The Tree of Life eliminated them, while Coriolanus is considered a foreign film) that's not that helpful. If she is nominated by the Globes for a specific performance, it will go a lot way to clearing things up for her.

Moneyball (Best Actor and Screenplay NYFCC, Ignored by NBR)

Sure, movies like The Artist, The Descendants, and War Horse don't need a lot of precursor support to claim their Best Picture slots, but Moneyball does. Recognition in two crucial categories by the NYFCC are huge for this film's chances, because if it can get nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Actor, it will be well-positioned for the Oscars. But just as it helps Moneyball every time it gets mentioned, it hurts it every time it gets overlooked, and getting completely ignored by the NBR stings like a 95 mile-an-hour fastball to the thigh. Moneyball is the sort of film that, without a mountain of support behind it, will be a toss-up right up until the Oscars are announced.





The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Top 10 NBR)

The big question surrounding Dragon Tattoo is whether or not it is too dark and violent, with director David Fincher admitting that there is too much anal rape in the film to qualify it as Oscar Bait. But if it gets enough support, then just like The Departed and No Country for Old Men it will be able to overcome its anti-Oscar issues. Mostly, it is comical that as much as the NYFCC bitched about making sure they could see this movie before they announced their awards, they then decided to ignore it completely. The mention by the NBR is very helpful in proving that Dragon Tattoo should be in contention, but getting ignored by the Globes (which is a possibility) would be several steps back for this film. Dragon Tattoo didn't get hurt by the first precursors, but it is still in a very precarious position.

So now that we know a little bit more than we did when I made my very, very early Best Picture predictions, here are my still very early predictions. The Artist has replaced The Descendants in the top spot, and Hugo jumped eight spots. Most of these changes were influenced by the announcements of the NBR, NYFCC, and Independent Spirits, but some are based on nothing but a hunch (The Ides of March dropping three spots for no reason I can argue). Things will be quiet for the next week, but the week after that is when the race gets into full swing. The Boston and LA Critics announce their awards on Sunday the 11th, followed over the next four days by the Critics Choice nominees, the SAG award nominees, and then the Golden Globes. If any of the frontrunners is most vulnerable right now, I would say it's War Horse, which is likely to be shut out by the SAG and might be ignored by the fickle Globes, but we'll just have to wait and see...

Updated Best Picture Predictions:
1. The Artist (Previously: 2)
2. The Descendants (Previously: 1)
3. War Horse (Previously: 3)
4. Hugo (Previously: 12)
5. The Help (Previously: 4)
6. Midnight in Paris (Previously: 7
7. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Previously: 6)
8. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Previously: 8)
9. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Previously: 9)
10. Moneyball (Previously: 10)
11. The Ides of March (Previously: 8)
12. Drive (Previously: Not Listed)
13. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Previously: Not Listed)
14. Young Adult (Previously: 13)

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