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Shame

Speaking of edgier fare, nothing says “stay away from me Oscars” like an NC-17 rating. But Fox Searchlight is treating this film's rating not as a scarlet letter but a badge of pride and a way to say “you should watch this movie because there's lots of boobs in it.” For independent films, any press is good press, and if Shame remains a conversation point for filmgoers heading into Oscar voting, it will have a leg up on much of its competition because it is getting so much attention. Shame is also ineligible for the WGA award, which is a blow to the film (that sounds dirty), making its path to the nomination even harder (wow, I need to stop doing that). But the real question is whether the Academy will embrace such a sexual film, or if they will just give it the shaft (okay, that one was intentional).

Win Win

If you want a break from the thoroughly depressing indies, here is something more lighthearted that could slip into the field. Tom McCarthy has become one of America's most respected independent writer/directors, and while his last film earned a Best Actor nomination, McCarthy has never been nominated for a Screenplay Oscar. He is looking to break that slump with his third feature, but will have an uphill battle. With much of its competition not in the running for the WGA, Win Win will need a nomination with that group to keep it competitive, and a good showing at the Globes would also be a big help. For any film released in the first half of the year, simply being remembered when voters fill out their ballots is half the battle, and if Win Win manages that, it will be in a good position.

The Dark Horses

50/50

Indie comedies shine in this category, and 50/50 seems like the kind of film the Academy would embrace. It has the comedy cred of an Apatow production, but is more grounded, emotional, and heartwarming than its raunchy brethren. But will bias against the film and its co-star Seth Rogen damage its chances? Will a category already packed with comedies have room for one more?

Beginners

Blah blah blah indie comedies Best Original Screenplay you get the point. Like Win Win, Beginners is at a disadvantage in that it was released several months ago. The difference between the two is that Beginners is also a contender in another category, Best Supporting Actor. Already being a name that voters are thinking about when they are filling out their ballots is always a bonus.

Margin Call

Overly topical films are a surprisingly tough sell for the Academy, but this well-reviewed drama about the financial crisis is getting the reviews to make it a contender. A cast full of big-name stars will help Margin Call get attention, but it got such a small release that voters will likely have forgotten about it by the end of the year, if they noticed it at all.

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