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Rango

With Pixar's Cars 2 being a critical bomb, Paramount is looking to be the critically-acclaimed animated comedy in the race. Rango is the Animated Feature frontrunner, but it isn't clear whether the Academy will be able to take it seriously enough to merit a Screenplay mention.

The Tree of Life

The weirdest Oscar contender of the year by far is looking to steal a Best Director spot, and if it has enough support for that, a nomination for its screenplay is a possibility. Malick was nominated for his screenplay for The Thin Red Line, but that was also a Best Picture nominee. Considering its difficult-to-wrap-your-head-around structure, Tree of Life will be a very tough sell in this category.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Locks:

The Descendants

There are three kinds of Best Picture nominees: those defined by their acting (The King's Speech, The Fighter), those defined by their directing (Inception, Black Swan), and those defined by their screenplays. Typically, if a Best Picture nominee is getting accolades primarily for its screenplay, it will get awarded for it. It happened to Payne for Sideways, and it will likely be the case again this year. The Descendants seems to be a guaranteed Best Picture nominee, which sets up as the favorite in this race. Payne was overlooked for his screenplay for About Schmidt, in one of the odder snubs of the twothousandsees, but the love for The Descendants is matching that for Sideways, so unless one of the other Best Picture nominees builds up a ton of support, The Descendants is the film to beat here.





The Safe Bets:

Moneyball

Moneyball is another film that is defined by its screenplay and its lead actor, which means it could provide competition for The Descendants. Yet despite the fact that it is one of the best reviewed films of the year, Moneyball is spinning its wheels a bit in the Oscar support department, as most people are predicting it to be on the outside of the Best Picture race looking in. But considering its two writers are Screenwriting Royalty, it will easily take a nomination here as a consolation prize if it doesn't earn a Best Picture spot. True, Stephen Zaillian has been ignored for his last three films, and Sorkin only earned his first nomination for The Social Network, but with as much support as this film has, even without a Best Picture nomination it should feel comfortable here.

War Horse

Epics don't always do well here, as they can be more about spectacle than substance, but the last Steven Spielberg-directed Best Picture nominee to not be nominated for its screenplay was Raiders of the Lost Ark. Add to that the pedigree brought in by it being adapted from a Tony-award winning play, and it seems certain that if War Horse has the support to be a Best Picture nominee, it will find its way into this race as well. If it is not in the Best Picture race it will be a much tougher battle, although both screenwriters have been nominated for Oscars in the past. Basically, if this film has love, it will show up in a lot of categories, but if that love isn't there, this is the first category where it will suffer.

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