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Tinker, Tailor Soldier, Spy

On the cusp of a nomination in several major categories, Tinker Tailor can either get pushed over the edge or slide out of contention very quickly, depending on reviews, box office, and success with the precursors. In a weaker year, this film, which is adapted from an acclaimed novel by John LeCarre, could score a nomination here even if it were not in the running for Best Picture. But in a category with so many major players, this script - which is written by two virtually unknown writers - is tying its hopes to this film's success in the Best Picture race. If any film could take the field by storm it would be this one, but it could just as easily be a non-factor when it comes time to fill out ballots, especially since it's ineligible for the WGA, which won't help with visibility.

The Dark Horses:

A Dangerous Method

Cronenberg's A History of Violence was nominated in this category in 2005, but that film had much more buzz surrounding it than this one does. The very good reviews have focused more on the performances than the script, and the controversy racket has been taken by Shame. This movie will be forgotten without a lot of precursor help, but if it could sneak into any category, this would be it.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Will Potter mania amount to anything this Oscar season? It has no shot at a Director nomination or any acting nods, so if the Academy wants to reward it either on top of or in place of a Best Picture nomination, they might give a pat on the back to Steve Kloves, who has been in this category before and wrote seven of the eight Potter films.

The Ides of March

Is this film a serious Oscar contender? It is still a toss-up, although the Globes will likely play a deciding role in how much serious attention it gets. It's more of an actor's showcase than anything else, but if the Academy loves it the script will be getting some attention. We'll just have to wait and see.

Rampart

Oren Moverman's last film scored an Original Screenplay nomination, and he might be able to pull off a similar feat this time around. Rampart is a dark and violent film, far more so than The Messenger, but if it gets similarly glowing reviews the Academy may want to recognize it in some fashion. It'll either be here or Best Actor if it happens, but both categories are crowded.

Best Original Screenplay:
1. The Artist
2. Midnight in Paris
3. Bridesmaids
4. Young Adult
5. Shame
6. Martha Marcy May Marlene
7. Win Win
8. 50/50

Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. The Descendants
2. Moneyball
3. War Horse
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
6. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
7. The Help
8. Hugo

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