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Ryan Gosling is asking Santa to multiply, not divide, his support

One of the surprises of the precursors this year is how often Drive is showing up on critics' lists. While not a lot of that love is spreading to Gosling, it could help him in the Best Actor race. But now that Jessica Chastain has settled on one film to get all of her attention, the actor who is in trouble of splitting his votes is Gosling. Already at a disadvantage without a SAG nomination, Gosling will have to hope that every Academy member who loves him either loves him for The Ides of March or Drive (Crazy, Stupid, Love is kind of a non-starter). While he got a Globe nomination for Ides, he got a Broadcast Critics from Drive, which means he probably won't get an Oscar nomination for either.

Woody Harrelson is asking Santa for a late surge of momentum

Generally there is only room for one - at most two - stars of indie dramas in a category like Best Actor. If your film is not in the running for Best Picture and you are not a big star, your chances are very slim. Harrelson is a bigger star than either Demian Bichir or Michael Shannon, but with Shannon getting all the critical love and Bichir being a SAG nominee, both of them have the edge over him. Harrelson's nomination for The Messenger followed nomination by both the Globes and the SAG, so it seems like this year he is already out of the race.

Gary Oldman is asking Santa to rally the British voters behind him

It seems that with every new precursor that gets announced, the chances of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy sink a little bit, and with it Gary Oldman's hopes of getting his first Oscar nomination. This film has not been getting any attention, and Oldman seems to have been completely ignored by every group. Considering his performance is not terribly juicy and doesn't scream Oscar, Oldman is practically out of contention. But if Tinker, Tailor is a hit at the BAFTAs (the British and therefore lesser Academy), it could show that the British members of the Academy will do whatever it takes to get Oldman nominated. Even then it's a long shot.

Michael Shannon is asking Santa to convince Academy voters to pay more attention to the critics than to the SAG or the HFPA

The critics seem to have rallied around Shannon as their actor of choice this year, and he is probably second to Jean Dujardin in number of critics circle Best Actor awards. But for a very difficult, very small release, Shannon was relying on some love from the biggest precursors to push him to the front of the pack. But none of that love came, with both the SAG and the Globes ignoring Shannon. That's a really difficult setback for Shannon to overcome, so he has to hope that there's a block of voters who really love Take Shelter.

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