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Best Supporting Actor:
(Sure Things: Christopher Plummer, Albert Brooks, Kenneth Branagh)

Armie Hammer is asking Santa for the opposite of what Leo is asking for

Clearly there are some people who really like J. Edgar, or are just big fans of Eastwood (we're all looking at you, NBR). If enough of those people can rally behind the film, and not just Dicaprio's performance, then Hammer could find himself sneaking into the field. Clearly he has some support, as he was able to get a SAG nomination. Still, considering that is basically the only precursor love he has gotten, he is definitely a long shot.

Jonah Hill is asking Santa for all of the love and support that Brad Pitt doesn't need

Going into the race there were some questions as to whether or not the Academy could get behind a film as esoteric and depressing as Moneyball. Those questions aren't being asked any more because of the mountains of support that Moneyball has gotten from various precursors. But will Brad Pitt get so much attention that Jonah Hill gets overlooked? Hill's performance isn't as flashy as those of some of his competitors, but getting nominated by both the Globes and the SAG is a very good sign.

Viggo Mortenson is asking Santa to remind voters that there's another sex-focused film besides Shame

Mortenson's Golden Globe nomination was a big surprise, because despite the critical acclaim for his performance as Sigmund Freud in A Dangerous Method, he had gotten virtually no precursor love. But Viggo is popular, and this wouldn't be the first time that he would be the sole representative of his David Cronenberg-directed film at the Oscars (he was nominated for Best Actor for Eastern Promises). But A Dangerous Method has gotten so little attention this season that it will be difficult for Mortenson to build a lot of support. He is still very much a long shot.

Nick Nolte is asking Santa to invoke in voters a sense of nostalgia

Nolte is well past his prime, and his days of stardom are behind him, but he is still well-known and respected in Hollywood. Very often these Hollywood legends can get attention for playing parts that highlight how old and past their prime they are, which is what Nolte did in Warrior. It worked well enough to get him a SAG nomination and a Broadcast Film Critics nomination. Usually there is one older veteran who gets nominated here (remember Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild) and Nolte seems to be in a prime position for that spot.

Patton Oswalt is asking Santa for basically the same thing Charlize Theron is

It is not uncommon for an actor to be nominated in supporting without having the lead in their film nominated as well, but it always helps to be able to ride the support of your star. In Oswalt's case it is crucial, especially because I find it unlikely that both Hill and Oswalt will get nominated (notice that Oswalt was not nominated for the Globes or the SAG, while Hill was snubbed by the BFCA, which picked Oswalt). Right now Oswalt is running behind Hill, but if Theron gets nominated, his chances improve.

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