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Best Supporting Actor

This is the category in which the HFPA has been most likely to play it safe. They go with the popular pick; even in years when the Academy gets unpredictable (awarding Alan Arkin over Eddie Murphy), the HFPA stays with the safer choice (Arkin wasn't even nominated that year). This year there is safety with Christopher Plummer, who is the heavy favorite for the Oscar for his role in Beginners. Might the HFPA throw us a curveball? If they do so it will probably be Albert Brooks for his role in Drive. I don't really see anyone else having a chance.

Best Supporting Actress

Any time there is a frontrunner in the supporting categories it makes a lot of sense to pick him or her to win. Right now there is no reason to predict against Octavia Spencer, as she has been the frontrunner in this category and The Help is a Best Picture nominee. Could a wave of support for The Artist push Berenice Bejo to an upset? It's possible, but there's no evidence to suggest it's going to happen.

Best Actor - Musical/Comedy

This category hasn't been this easy to predict since Joaquin Phoenix won for Walk the Line. This group is mostly filler, a couple of guys needed to keep Juan Dujardin from feeling lonely while he waits to pick up his award. And yes, this is without a doubt his award.

Best Actress - Musical/Comedy

Could an argument be made for picking Charlize Theron or Kristen Wiig over Michelle Williams? Probably, but it wouldn't be a very good one. Williams is the clear favorite for her role in My Week with Marilyn, and considering the film is also a Best Picture nominee, there is no reason to think she won't win.

Best Actor - Drama

This is, along with Director and Score, one of the most wide open categories this year, with three legitimate contenders. George Clooney is extremely popular, as is evidenced by the fact that he has been nominated for screenwriting and directing in addition to his nomination here. He has won two Golden Globes for film acting, most recently in 2005 for Syriana. Plus he is in a film that the HFPA clearly loves, working with a filmmaker the HFPA adores. Brad Pitt is almost as beloved as Clooney, and is clearly more overdue for a win, as he hasn't won a Globe since 1995. Moneyball has almost as many nominations as The Descendants does, so clearly both films have a lot of supporters.

Then there is Leonardo Dicaprio, whose film is not a Best Picture nominee, but whose performance is much flashier than Clooney's or Pitt's. He is playing a real person, he has an accent, and he ages significantly during the course of the film. All of these men have won - but not too recently - and are frequent nominees, and I couldn't argue against any of them, except Dicaprio's film is clearly not as popular as Clooney's or Pitt's. If the HFPA wants to block vote this year, Clooney will be part of a wave of support for The Descendants. If they want to spread the love, look for Pitt or Dicaprio to win while Descendants wins Screenplay and something else wins Picture. It could go any direction, but for the sake of choosing, I have a good feeling about Clooney.

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