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Best Actress - Drama

This is a two woman show, with Meryl Streep's performance as Margaret Thatcher up against Viola Davis's role in The Help. I am always hesitant to pick against Streep, but I feel the need to this time. For starters, Davis has the advantage of being from a Best Picture nominee. Secondly, many feel that this is Streep's year to finally win another Oscar, since she hasn't won since 1982. However, she is not similarly overdue for a Golden Globe, having won Best Actress in 2009 and 2006. Viola Davis is a rising star who plays a very sympathetic character in The Help, while Streep plays what can most nicely be called an anti-hero. I do think that Streep will win the SAG award and the Oscar, but the Globe will go to Davis.

Best Director

For the last three years the winner for Best Director was from the film that won Best Picture - Drama, but from the six years before that (not counting 2007 when the Director winner's film was foreign and therefore ineligible for the main Best Picture) only two of the Best Director winners had their films win the big prize. Since there is no favorite to win Best Picture - Drama, I think the Globes will mix it up this year. Martin Scorsese has won two Golden Globes in the last ten years, so I suspect they will not be looking to award him again. Alexander Payne has never won Best Director, so he might be thought of as overdue, but the HFPA typically gives this award to visually impressive films (Avatar, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) or to very dark films (The Social Network, Million Dollar Baby). The Descendants is certainly not dark, and even its most ardent supporters wouldn't call it visually impressive. No, I think this year the award will go to Michel Hazanivicius for The Artist. True it's been more than a decade since a comedy won this award, but there is a lot of love for The Artist, and the field is open enough this year to let a comedy ride its wave of support to this award.

Best Picture - Musical/Comedy

Have I made it clear yet how much of a cakewalk I think this will be for The Artist? Good, then let's take a break for a little history lesson:

The cakewalk was originally a 19th-century dance, invented by African-Americans in the antebellum South. It was intended to satirize the stiff ballroom promenades of white plantation owners, who favored the rigidly formal dances of European high-society. Cakewalking slaves lampooned these stuffy moves by over-accentuating their high kicks, bows, and imaginary hat doffings, mixing the cartoonish gestures together with traditional African steps. Likely unaware of the dance's derisive roots, the whites often invited their slaves to participate in Sunday contests, to determine which dancers were most elegant and inventive. The winners would receive cake slices, a prize which gave birth to the dance's familiar name.

That little slice of information comes courtesy of Slate* and is proof that our history is super duper racist. Also, The Artist is going to win.

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