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Best Picture - Drama

This award has left me scratching my head, just because I can't really see any of these films actually winning. The last time that a film won this award without being a Best Director nominee was 1992 (Scent of a Woman), so let's eliminate War Horse, The Help, and Moneyball. In the last decade, four films have won Best Picture-Drama without winning Best Director. Atonement won Picture and Score, Babel only won Picture, The Aviator won Picture, Actor, and Score, and The Hours won Picture and Actress. That doesn't give us a lot to work with, so let's go back further.

A Beautiful Mind won Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Screenplay, but not Director (Gosford Park, the last comedy to win the award, took it that year). Gladiator won Picure and Score, as did The English Patient. And this is where we find the trend that cracks the case. The last time a film won Best Picture-Drama without even being nominated for Best Original Score was that ultimate anomaly, Scent of a Woman, back in 1992. Perhaps it is because the HFPA loves grandiosity, and a sweeping impressive score is the ultimate marker of that. Clearly this will be a split year: The Help will win Actress, Supporting Actress, and Song, The Descendants will win Actor and Screenplay (just like About Schmidt did when it lost to The Hours), The Artist will sweep the comedy awards and nab Best Director, and whether or not it wins Best Score, our Best Picture - Drama winner will be Hugo.

But wait, what about Best Screenplay? Isn't that an important nomination for any Best Picture winner to get? Yes, but look at the last three Best Picture winners to not be nominated for Best Screenplay: Avatar, Return of the King, and Gladiator. All three won based on two things: their impressive visuals and the respect for their director. If there are two things that everyone can agree on about Hugo, it is that it is visually outstanding and that Scorsese is the man. It took a lot of circuitous logic, but I finally figured out what film is definitely going to win Best Picture - Drama. Unless of course The Help wins... or The Descendants... or even The Ides of March, which could pull a Babel... crap.

Final Predictions:
Best Picture - Drama: Hugo
Best Picture - Musical/Comedy: The Artist
Best Actor - Drama: George Clooney- The Descendants
Best Actor - Musical/Comedy: Juan Dujardin - The Artist
Best Actress - Drama: Viola Davis - The Help
Best Actress - Musical/Comedy: Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer - The Help
Best Director: Michel Hazanivicius - The Artist
Best Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Original Score: Hugo
Best Original Song: The Living Proof - The Help
Best Animated Feature: Rango
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation
Those TV Awards: Peter Dinklage will win EVERY TV award.

*More information about cakewalking can be found in this article.

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