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Its biggest competition is likely to be Transformers: Dark of the Moon, which is hoping to make up for slights against the previous two films in the series. Transformers was nominated, but lost in an upset to The Golden Compass, while Revenge of the Fallen was edged out in a crowded category by Avatar, District 9, and Star Trek. Each film ups the grandiosity of the effects, but will series fatigue keep this film from the podium again?

Could there be an upset in this category? Hugo is the only Best Picture nominee in the field, which might give it an edge, while Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 is only the second Potter film nominated. These are both films that voters might support for reasons other than just thinking they have the best visual effects. Potter might even have a better chance than Dark of the Moon, since the Academy might want to give it an award just as a way of rewarding the series as a whole. In a crowded category, Rise of the Planet of the Apes makes the strongest case for deserving this award, and in the end it probably will.

Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Might Win: Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Dark Horse: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Best Sound Editing
We've already established that I'm a nerd for statistics, which can occasionally lead to my downfall. Still, check this out: since 1995, seven war films have won the Best Sound Editing award, and zero war films have lost to a film that wasn't a war film. Having lots of visual effects is not the advantage one would expect it to be, as evidenced by Pirates of the Caribbean's loss to Master and Commander, Transformers' loss to The Bourne Ultimatum, and Avatar's loss to The Hurt Locker. The films that win here are the popular films that are either Best Picture nominees or just missed the cut.

Keeping all that in mind, I have a feeling that this is the category where War Horse gets its Oscar. It has the big action sequences mixed with the Oscar prestige that gets films Sound Editing Oscars. Letters from Iwo Jima took its only statue here, and I suspect the same will happen for War Horse. Of course, if the love for Hugo is overwhelming it has a shot to steal this category from War Horse. The Hurt Locker likely only won here because of love for the film, rather than its sound editing, and Hugo did have that big impressive train sequence. War Horse is not a lock to win, but it does seem to be in a comfortable position.

Will Win: War Horse
Might Win: Hugo
Dark Horse: Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Best Sound Mixing
The Best Picture favorite usually takes this category pretty easily, but something makes me think that's not going to happen this year, barring the weirdest write-in campaign in Oscar history. That being the case, look for this year's Best Picture runner-up to step in and scoop this one. Hugo is unlikely to win Best Picture, so its consolation prize will be as many technical Oscars as it can grab. Without The Artist in its way, Hugo seems like a very strong favorite here.

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