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Still, the last four years in a row the winner for Best Sound Mixing was also the winner for Best Sound Editing. True, two of those films were Best Picture winners, but the fact is that the Academy tends to lump these two categories in together. That means that if War Horse takes Best Sound Editing it could also scoop up this one, since it's obvious that most voters don't know the difference between mixing and editing. If you don't have enough faith in the Academy to trust that they'll be able to split these two categories, then pick one of these two films to win both categories. However, I do believe this year will break the trend.

Will Win: Hugo
Might Win: War Horse
Dark Horse: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Makeup
This category is so much of a head scratcher that my scalp has started bleeding. One the one hand, we have Harry Potter, which is the more traditional Best Makeup winner. Fantasy films with prosthetics tend to dominate here, with The Wolfman, Star Trek, Pan's Labyrinth and The Chronicles of Narnia all picking up Oscars for their makeup. Still, this is the first Potter film to be nominated in this category, which is more remarkable for its art direction and visual effects than for its makeup. Getting ignored for Best Picture shows that there is not as much love for this film in the Academy as there is on the Internet.

On the other hand, there is the less ostentatious but very impressive age makeup of The Iron Lady. The last time a film won this category for its age makeup was La Vie en Rose, in which the Best Actress winner was transformed into a famous historical figure. Whether or not Meryl Streep wins Best Actress, the comparison is clear, as Streep's transformation into Margaret Thatcher has gotten the raves that the film itself did not get. Still, age makeup is a tough sell without any other impressive uses of makeup or prosthetics, as evidenced by A Beautiful Mind's loss Fellowship of the Ring. The safer choice is The Iron Lady, but it is by no means safe with Harry Potter breathing down its neck.

Will Win: The Iron Lady
Might Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Dark Horse: By process of elimination, Albert Nobbs

Next time I will break down Best Art Direction, Best Costumes, and two of the most interesting categories of the year, Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing.

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