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Best Adapted Screenplay

There are a lot of veterans in this category, as nominees Alexander Payne, John Logan, George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin have all been nominated before. Considering how closely Best Picture usually matches up with the screenplays, it is surprising that two films not nominated for the big prize beat out films like War Horse, The Help, and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Although there might not be a lot of broad support for The Ides of March and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, clearly there are some writers who love them.

Which is to say that the nomination is the award for those two films. The Descendants has been the frontrunner for this award pretty much since word got out that Alexander Payne was making a new film. He was snubbed for About Schmidt, but cruised to a win for Sideways, and seems to be in the same position here. It has support from multiple branches and won the Writers Guild Award. There is no reason to think that it won't win.

Will Win: The Descendants
Might Win: Moneyball
Dark Horse: Hugo

Best Original Screenplay

If The Artist is going to dominate on Sunday night, if it is going to truly sweep, then it will win here. If there is so much love for the film that it simply cannot be denied, it will win Best Screenplay. That category is often a gimme for Best Picture winners, as The King's Speech, No Country for Old Men, and Crash all won for their screenplays despite little success elsewhere. The kind of films that win Best Picture without taking a Screenplay award are the kind more defined by their visuals, and they typically lose to respected veterans who wrote popular scripts. Gladiator lost to Almost Famous, Chicago lost to The Pianist, and Million Dollar Baby lost to Sideways.

The Artist is definitely defined more by its visuals than its script, and it is likely that some voters might not be willing to vote for a silent film in this category. That is why I suspect Midnight in Paris will take this award, making it the only Oscar the film will win. Woody Allen is beloved by the Academy (although the love is not returned), and Midnight in Paris is Allen's first Best Picture nominee since Hannah and her Sisters, which was also the last time Allen won an Oscar. Wins at the Golden Globes and the WGA (where The Artist was ineligible) are a good sign for Allen's chances at winning a third Oscar. It might get swept away by The Artist's domination, but I feel confident predicting a win for Allen.

Will Win: Midnight in Paris
Might Win: The Artist
Dark Horse: A Separation

Best Director

As I've said, it is difficult for comedies to win Best Director Oscars. Chicago couldn't do it, and Shakespeare in Love couldn't do it. But Terms of Endearment did (although that is classified a comedy the same way American Beauty is) and Annie Hall did. But Chicago is the most interesting case here. Rob Marshall won the Directors Guild Award, which usually coincides with Best Director more often than something that happens almost all the time. But Gangs of New York won the Golden Globe for Best Director, and many thought that Scorsese would finally win his first Directing Oscar. Instead, in the biggest surprise of the night, Roman Polanski won the award for The Pianist.

There is very rarely a split between Best Picture and Best Director, so when it does happen we have to figure out how we could have seen it coming. In 2001, Ang Lee was expected to win Best Director for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, since he had won both the Globe and the DGA. But the Oscar went to Stephen Soderbergh for Traffic, while Best Picture went to Gladiator. What I am trying to get across is that the DGA winner is the overwhelming frontrunner for Best Director, and when it doesn't happen it is because things got weird.

So Michel Hazanivicius won the DGA, while Martin Scorsese won the Golden Globe. It is difficult to make an argument against Hazanivicius winning, but considering that Marshall was a similar neophyte (Hazanivicius is a neophyte by American standards) director of an old school comedy who won the DGA, I feel some reticence in predicting him to win. Hugo's 11 nominations prove that there is a lot of support for the film, and Scorsese is always a threat to win, even if he almost never does. But someone else to watch out for it Terrence Malick. Tree of Life's Best Picture nomination is a sign that there is a strong fanbase within the Academy. Could Malick pull a Polanski and steal the Oscar? It certainly can't be ruled out. However, I think we all learned last year that the rule is to always pick the Best Picture winner to also take Director. If you want to play it safe, stick with The Artist.

Will Win: The Artist
Might Win: Hugo
Dark Horse: The Tree of Life

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