Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
April 23, 2013
Felix Quinonez: I think this opening is definitely good, not great. I believe it can get close to at least matching its production budget domestically and when the overseas receipts are added up it won't be a smash but still a hit. I feel that the reason why it was opened in April was because the studio didn't think it was strong enough to compete with the summer releases. But when all is said and done I think this can fall into the win category for Mr. Cruise.
Max Braden: That's a great opening for mid-April, putting it in the top ten for all April opening weekends (and at least three of the higher placed record holders are sequels). I think it was apparent from looking at the trailer that this would otherwise be a B-movie sci-fi action piece with some nifty visuals, were it not for the addition of Tom Cruise. Paring him with action is still a pretty strong combination. Oblivion might have even made more but my friends and I got the sense that there was some hyped up twist to the story that would turn out to be a bit of a disappointment, so we had a little hesitation about seeing the movie.
Brett Ballard-Beach: It is a good-sized opening (Cruise's best outside of Mission Impossibles and Spielberg collaborations) and respectable for a 2013 star-driven vehicle not based on previously existing material (although it apparently boasts a mash-up of scores of science fiction plots and elements). It won't have great legs and may not make it to $100 million domestic, but it should meet the lower expectations accorded it, particularly since overseas grosses have started off strong.
Edwin Davies: I definitely lean towards the "good/great result" end of the spectrum on this one. Nothing about Oblivion suggested to me that Universal was expecting it to be an out and out smash; it was released at a slow time of the year which has only yielded huge openings for established franchises, the budget was not outrageously huge ($120 million is pretty reasonable for a sci-fi blockbuster these days, especially one that looks as amazing as Oblivion does) and the marketing push wasn't as oppressive as it might have been if they were pushing for a $50 million plus weekend. This struck me as a film they wanted to make a little money on stateside but, given Cruise's international appeal, much more overseas. With fairly modest expectations like that, this is a very good start. I think it has a shot at making $100 million, though it'll probably struggle to keep its head above water once Iron Man 3 comes out, and will probably make three or four times that internationally. Come December, this isn't going to be one of the box office stories we talk about as one of the most remarkable of the year, but it's a more than decent one.
David Mumpower: I agree with Matthew that Oblivion was not intended to extend the summer campaign even further. It's not that sort of four-quadrant film. Instead, I view this as the super-sized version of projects like Moon and Source Code. Oblivion will earn more in its first three weeks in theaters than those films managed in combination during their full domestic runs. And that is not even including the powerful overseas performance delivered thus far. Brett also makes a great point that Cruise has largely not been involved in the mega-opening weekends we have witnessed during the 2000s. Not adjusting for inflation, this performance exceeds some of his most popular projects such as Interview with the Vampire and Minority Report. It's a fine result that exceeded my expectations for the project. I wish the movie itself had been better, though.
Kim Hollis: I think this is a pretty great result, actually. Oblivion is basically a movie being sold on special effects and the presence of Cruise, and I think discerning audiences will be a little bit cautious about any such project that is not an established brand. To get off to such a solid start in advance of the summer season has to be considered a success, and the international numbers will be plenty good enough to ensure that the studio will have a money-maker on their hands.
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