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Kim Hollis: I think you have a good combination of talent here, with Jackman, Jake Gyllenhaal (who saw End of Watch open to over $13 million this same weekend last year) and Terrence Howard all contributing some audience to some degree. Also, the commercials really sold it as an intriguing thriller for a mature audience. I really like that Warner Bros. had enough faith in the film to release it so wide.

Reagen Sulewski: I made the comparison to Ransom in the forecast and I stick by that, after adjusting for how big of a star Mel Gibson was at the time relative to Hugh Jackman now. It's been a running theme in the past few years that you're either a franchise film that opens to monstrous numbers, or you're stuck in the mid 20s if you're an "adult-targeted" film that don't have no 'splosions and stuff. People have decided that for these kinds of films, waiting for DVD (or increasingly, digital) is good enough, and it's tough to argue with them. So I think this is both a decent result and symptomatic of what the market is actually going to support with ever increasingly expensive tickets.

David Mumpower: While we always stress that a good movie will earn a great deal of money independent of release date, we are also aware of the fact that the middling titles have a tendency to be impacted by their entry point in the marketplace. The other comparisons used for Prisoners are much more valid than a couple I am about to mention; I am simply using a couple from another portion of the 2013 offseason for movies to demonstrate the quality of this performance.

Gangster Squad, which was marketed much more significantly while featuring an even better cast, debuted to only $17.1 million. Broken City managed a paltry $8.3 million. And if we consider a film from just last weekend, The Family managed only $14 million. All of these titles share surface similarities in terms of cast quality. While Prisoners is going to win the quality debate over any of them, that plays more into the legs than the opening weekend. Judging by some similar metrics, Prisoners has performed admirably and I would go so far as to say that it overachieved relative to reasonable expectations for the project.

Max Braden: That's a great start. A murky drama in the doldrums of September with muted style for its typically charismatic lead? I would not have been surprised if it had failed to break $10 million. As David noted, $21 million is 50% more than The Family opened with and that had a lot more pep. I did see a ton of advertising for this. I guess the crowd that flocked to Insidious 2 last weekend was still in the mood for something dark this weekend.

Tim Briody: For something really freakin' dark, this is pretty good. Hugh Jackman's resume is no longer "Wolverine a bunch of times and some other stuff."

Bruce Hall: It's a slow time of year, but adult programming is usually a safe bet to start out the fall. I'm not sure a movie about child abduction is what I was in the mood for, but enough people were to give Prisoners a pretty solid opening frame. Good word-of-mouth and critical consensus should ultimately make this movie a success. Granted, winning the third week of September isn't exactly like killing it July 4th weekend, but a win is a win, right?

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