Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
October 15, 2013
Bruce Hall: I think that if Gravity hadn't just notched the largest October opening ever, we might have had a stronger opening for Captain Phillips. But considering the unusual nature of the competition, I think that $26 million is what might - in this week's vernacular - be called a "moral victory". Interestingly, only four Tom Hanks movies have ever opened more than slightly above the $30 million mark and they were all either animated features, or based on a Da Vinci code novel. The numbers suggest that most of Hanks' work is of the "slow burn" variety.
So if Alfonso Cuaron were a little less good at what he does, we might be having a different conversation right now.
Kim Hollis: Considering the subject matter and the fact that it looks like more of a prestige picture than an action film, I think that $26 million is an admirable result. Over the past several years, Hanks has starred in some clunkers, which I think has led to a lessening of confidence in him as a topline star. Captain Phillips had the air of more traditional Hanks projects, such as Cast Away. I would agree that word-of-mouth will have this film performing quite well over the long term, particularly if it gets bolstered by some awards attention.
Max Braden: I think that's a fairly healthy number for this movie. I don't want to give too much credit to Gravity's box office black hole taking all the money, since it's not like this is on the level of a competitive summer weekend. Still, I do think the audience is similar for both movies. I also think the theme shares an audience with Zero Dark Thirty, and Captain Phillips just edged out that movie in terms of per-site average for its first wide weekend. Despite good reviews though, I'm not sure Captain Phillips will manage to match Zero Dark Thirty's $95 million total domestic run. Zero Dark Thirty just had a stronger buzz about both its actors and the bin Laden raid right in the middle of award season. I wouldn't be surprised if Captain Phillips gets some nominations, but it might be two months too early to take advantage of an award buzz bump to its box office, and isn't benefiting from the wild viewer buzz that Gravity is getting.
Reagen Sulewski: I get frustrated when people compare things against each other just because they happened in close proximity. Gravity was a sci-fi event spectacle - Captain Phillips is "just" a ripped from the headlines drama. Of course it's not going to match the number of the former, it's not offering as much to people. As far as the number itself, I would say that is about the figure you get when you're targeting adults with a great premise and star and effectively do your job of marketing it to them. Sometimes everyone just does their jobs right and we all go home happy. This is one of those times.
David Mumpower: I would add that the presence of Tom Hanks is what elevates this movie into the mid-$20s range. Otherwise, there is a distinct movie of the week vibe to the story. I mean, the actual events are harrowing enough that I think that they stand on their own but "Pirates Take Boat" is a news story for a day. It isn't a concept that automatically sells movie tickets. We are turning up our nose at steady results too often when a $55 million production's $25.7 million debut isn't impressive. Presuming that the glowing reviews and A Cinemascore create solid word-of-mouth, this drama will be in the black before it exits theaters. The only question is by how much. With a range of $75-$100 million as the likely landing spot, Captain Phillips is a solid win.
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