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This category is especially difficult to call this year because all four movies are magnificent and would be deserving winners. I can see the race going any of four ways.

Probably in last place is Palestine’s entry, Omar. The movie tells the story of a Palestinian man who lives in the Occupied Territories; a baker by day but a “freedom fighter” by night, he and his friends land in serious trouble after they assassinate an Israeli soldier. The title character is then forced to become an informant for the police, which puts him in danger and at odds with his friends and lover, whom he visits daily by climbing a wall in the Territories. Omar is a terrific, psychological suspense movie, even if the plot seems a tad unrealistic at times. It deftly navigates the darkest features of human nature (paranoia, betrayal, and hatred) alongside man’s individual capacity to love. The fast-paced action of the movie makes it the most exciting of the bunch, but the controversial topic that lies beneath the service of the movie is one that time and again has been resisted by the Academy.

It gets trickier from here. Perhaps the most widely seen of the lot so far is Denmark’s entry, The Hunt. This is Denmark’s second consecutive nomination in this category, and the star of The Hunt also starred in last year’s nominated A Royal Affair. This time, he portrays a school teacher falsely accused of molesting a student. The teacher’s life is shattered as the town that once loved him turns viciously against him. Like Omar, The Hunt is a taut suspense movie that evinces the darker side of human nature and has little redemptive value in its denouement. It will get many votes, as it can be enjoyed either as a respectable drama and/or a deeper allegory about the human condition. Still, I think the competition it faces is stiff and may impede its victory.

Most people are currently predicting Italy’s The Great Beauty for the win. The Great Beauty is an artful paean to life itself, told from the perspective of an aging writer who reflects upon the banality and at the same time upon the sincerity and deep meaning of his life and friends. The movie is both the more artistic and the more refined of the bunch, but it does suffer a bit from somewhat cartoonish if memorable characters. Italy boasts a whopping 13 Oscars out of only 28 nominations and while it may not win the World Cup this year, it looks poised to add a 14th Oscar to its impressive tally, at least according to the currently reigning consensus.

But I am currently predicting my personal favorite, Belgium’s The Broken Circle Breakdown, to win the first ever Foreign Language Oscar for that country. Breakdown tells the harrowing story of a couple whose life is torn asunder by the fatal illness of their daughter, and the different ways in which they cope with these events. The movie is an even subtler and deeper story about life and its sometimes harsh and seemingly random lessons than The Great Beauty, and is consequently much more emotionally engaging. It is also, by far, the most heart-wrenching movie to watch of the lot - it will stay with you, undoubtedly, for days, in part because of the honest and touching acting of the entire cast.

Thus, the race between Great Beauty and Broken Circle will serve as an immediate barometer as to whether opening up the category to the entire Academy will make this race similar to Best Picture. If this were a Best Picture race, The Great Beauty, an epic-style movie with a serious enough message but an overall satisfying story arc, would easily win, while Broken Circle Breakdown, a much darker story that leaves no one feeling happy after the movie is over, would lose. If Broken Circle wins, by contrast, it will indicate to me that the rule change did not have a significant impact.

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