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Another potential winner is Facing Fear, a story about a gay man who, by happenstance becomes acquainted in a professional setting with an ex-Neo-Nazi that was part of a gang of adolescents that had beat him almost to death over 30 years prior. The documentary focuses on both men as they journey through forgiveness (the victim’s forgiveness of the attacker, and the attacker of himself), and the importance and power of forgiveness in an individual’s life. It is another remarkable, almost unbelievable story about human emotion. However, it lacks any sense of broader human importance, nor does it represent a philanthropic-like achievement. Under the theory that at least one of the two is needed to win the Oscar, I also would not bet on this movie.

Alas we come to two key words: Holocaust and Nazis. The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life, is your likely winner. It tells the story of an inspiring woman, who is 109-years-old and lives in London, and how she survived World War II as a Czech Jew, first in Prague and then at the Theresienstadt concentration camp, with the clever use of her musical talents to entertain her captors. The story is the most uplifting, as it contains a message of hope and human redemption in the context of events much more transcendental than those told in other documentaries. At times, the message does become a bit too uplifting, for example when one survivor declares that her survival was due to her attitude and her refusal to contemplate her own death, almost insinuating unthinkable things about all the victims of the Nazis’ crimes. This is all to say that The Lady in Number 6 is by no means the runaway best of the documentaries, and by no means a clear surefire winner.

If I had to vote myself, I would vote for the one about the remarkable Yemeni protests (Karama has no Walls), but the emotional-minded Academy can normally be counted on to reward these types of stories, so I will likely mark Lady in Number 6 on my ballot on Oscar night. (Editor’s Note: Alice Herz-Sommer, the subject of The Lady in Number 6, passed away at the age of 110 on Sunday. Since the deadline for Oscar ballots is February 25th, this news may have an impact on the film’s chances. Either way, we send our condolences to her family and friends.)

With only one week left to go, in my next column I will return to where it all began: The confounding Best Picture race, and an analysis of why each front-runner can and cannot win on Oscar night. After that it will be all over but the crying, and I will circle back with my final predictions before the big night.

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