They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?

The Calm Before the Storm: The Early Contenders

By J. Don Birnam

September 8, 2014

Remember an hour ago when I was a little boy?

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From Toronto

Like the others, the Toronto Film Festival will screen The Foxcatcher. Beyond that, however, its two main official selection debuts will be The Judge, the Robert Downey Jr. and Robert Duvall coming home-type story about a lawyer and his complex relationship with his father, alongside A Little Chaos, the Alan Rickman and Kate Winslet vehicle about the construction of the Versailles gardens by Louis the XIV. I have it from a reputable source, however, that Chaos is not much to write home about (nor have Toronto’s or other festival’s closing night selections been so for a while), and The Judge does not seem like serious Oscar material from its trailers.

Thus, like for Telluride, Toronto may be left bragging only about North American premiers of movies that screened first across the Atlantic - perhaps a trend worth keeping an eye on and discussing further in a future column.




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From New York

Last but not least is my own local film festival, New York’s 52nd.

One of the movies I am most looking forward to this fall is David Fincher’s Gone Girl, which will have its world-premiere in New York in a few weeks. Given how deliciously naughty the book is, the fact that Fincher is perhaps my favorite currently-working director, and that I would much rather see Ben Affleck in front of the camera than behind it, it is no wonder that I look forward to this movie. Of course, as you may know, the source material is dark and problematic in its denouement, so the project could fall flat. However, most of Fincher’s work has received multiple Oscar nominations (from The Social Network to The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo to Fight Club), so I would be more stunned if the movie was blanked out of nominations.

To close, it’s worth clarifying that the movies covered here are by no means whatsoever the only ones getting advance Oscar buzz. Unbroken, directed by Angelina Jolie and based on the book by the author of Best Picture nominee Seabiscuit, is highly anticipated, and will not be seen by critics or audiences for a while. Nor will Christopher Nolan’s highly-anticipated sci-fi blockbuster, Interstellar.

So, all of this is to say that, as the race gets underway, there is much cause for hope and optimism: exciting and promising movies, familiar and new faces, creative projects by beloved directors.

Now all we have to do is wait for all the award shows to come in and ruin all of it.


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