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On the other hand, the other obvious omission was Clint Eastwood for American Sniper. Despite its strong showing across the board, a Best Director miss for that film should weaken its chances significantly at least under old Oscar wisdom (but after two straight years of a Director/Picture mismatch at the Oscars, who knows).

Screenplays: Few Surprises

The story of the screenplay nominations neatly encapsulates the story of my Oscar 2014 prediction season. Where I expected Selma and Gone Girl to do well, Foxcatcher snuck in. In the original race, Selma’s spot went to Foxcatcher, while in the adapted category, Inherent Vice took Gone Girl’s spot. It is hard to argue with the other nominees, but with Gone Girl gone, The Imitation Game will likely receive a consolation Oscar in adapted (or a companion if it does sneak in for Best Picture). Meanwhile, in Original, Boyhood, Birdman, and the Grand Budapest Hotel will duke it out. I could see all three winning: the Academy could want to cement a Boyhood win by giving it as many Oscars as possible, or it may want to give Grand Budapest a consolation prize in a major category, or recognize Birdman’s inventive screenplay.

The bigger story, of course, is parallel to the same story as the Best Director race - screenplays by and about women and racial minorities are out in favor of stories by and about white males. I have always said that the Oscars are politics, and you can expect every major news outlet and Oscar blog to ask and cover this question for the next weeks and beyond.

Other Major Surprises: Gone Girl gone, Mr. Turner turned in

I would have to say that the biggest other surprise was The LEGO Movie not getting in for Best Animated Feature, leaving the space instead for The Song of the Sea. With the presumptive front-runner knocked out, it’s anyone’s guess as to who is going to win, but the smart money is probably on Globes winner How to Train Your Dragon 2.

In the Documentary category, the Roger Ebert documentary Life Itself was snubbed, clearing the path for Citizenfour to take home the gold. And in Foreign Language film, Sweden’s Miss for Force Majeure (Argentina’s Wild Tales got in instead) should pave the way for an easy win by the fantastic Ida, which also landed a somewhat unexpected but deserved Best Cinematography nod.

In the tech categories, Mr. Turner, Birdman and American Sniper all did a lot better than I thought they would. Mr. Turner was not particularly good, but few can argue with its craft, and the branches of the Academy gave it the right amount of attention. I also didn’t expect Birdman to do as well as it did, landing nods in both sound categories (along with Interstellar, Unbroken, and American Sniper). However, the lack of a Best Editing nomination for Birdman raises strong question marks, as no film has won Best Picture without an Editing nod in a very long time.

The Grand Budapest Hotel also did very well in the techs but really all around, as was mostly expected, even landing a makeup nod I thought would go to Maleficient. Indeed, its nominations leading count of nine nominations (tied with Birdman) should make it a sleeper contender for the Best Picture Oscar. Stranger things have happened.

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